Pneumonia is underway to kill almost 11 million children by 2030, a new analysis conducted by the Johns Hopkins University and Save the Children revealing.
Detailed modeling, released on World Pneumonia Day, also shows that more than four million deaths could be prevented – more than a third – easily with coherent actions to improve vaccination rates , treatment and nutrition.
Without action, the support organization's forecasts show Nigeria, India, Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) likely to have the highest burden of deaths.
Pneumonia mainly affects the elderly, but the disease is the largest infectious killer for children worldwide, killing more than malaria, diarrhea and measles.
There were 880,000 children, mostly under 2 years old, dying of the disease in 2016, the most recent year for which full data is available.
SCI Chief Executive, Helle Thorning-Schmidt said:
"It's believed that nearly a million children die every year of a disease that we have the information and resources to defeat. A vaccine is available, and an antibiotic course costs £ 0.30.
"There are no pink ribbons, global summits or pneumonia marks. But for anyone who cares for justice for children and their access to essential healthcare, this forgotten killer be the definitive cause of our age. "
The agency's prospects are based on a model developed by researchers at Johns Hopkins University of the name Protected Lives Equipment (LDY).
They will show almost 11 million (10,865,728) children die by 2030 on current trends, with the highest death burden in Nigeria (1,730,000), India (1,710,000), Pakistan (706,000), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo ( 635,000).
However, increasing the number of vaccinations to 90 per cent of under-fives could save 610,000 lives; the provision of cheap antibiotics could save 1.9 million; and making sure that children get good nutrition saves 2.5 million.
If the three overlapping interventions were carried out by 2030, the model suggests that a total of 4.1 million deaths could be avoided.
2030 is the target date for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), which includes an ambitious global pledge to "put the most to preventable child deaths" and achieve a General Health Scope .
To finish children's deaths that can be prevented from diseases such as pneumonia, Save the Children wants to see:
The prices of large pneumonia vaccines have dropped dramatically to allow immunity to more than 76 million babies
Governments of low and medium income countries that prioritize the construction of strong health and nutrition systems that reach the most peripheral
Donor governments support countries to achieve General Health Coverage.
Dr Ellie Cannon, a GP with the UK National Health Service (NHS), visited Save the Children's health programs in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where 50,000 children of pneumonia died in 2016.
Dr Cannon said:
"It was astonishing to see children die from a disease that we can treat as easily in the UK. Children are about to become hungry, their immune systems weaken because of malnutrition and even when they get medical help doctors do not have basic supplies such as oxygen and antibiotics, these are doctors with me with the same training. I can write a simple prescription or arrange a quick Ray X. My colleagues medical in the DRC is forced to watch children die. "
For more information or interviews with spokespersons, contact:
Antonia Roupell- [email protected] / +44 (0) 7855 957573
Out of hours – [email protected] / +44 (0) 7831 650409
The content of pneumonia and case studies is available here.
The content of Dr Ellie Cannon's visit to the DRC is available here.
NOTES TO EDITORS:
Johns Hopkins University University (LDY) Safeguarding Lives Tool has designed to estimate lives that are being retained from mother and child health interventions. Rather than providing a simple linear projection, it is estimated that the profile of children's pneumonia mortality in 2030 will look back to the population's risk factors such as malnutrition, vaccination rates and health care. For this analysis, five projection (1) business projections were usually achieved where rates of risk factors increase continue to move forward in their historical trends until 2030; (2) Hib and PCV vaccination rates to follow Gavi-specific trends to a country or 90% by 2030 (whichever is higher); (3) Achieve World Health Assembly targets for reductions in stunting and wasting and increasing breastfeeding; (4) Increase oral antibiotics for pneumonia to 90% by 2030 and spray antibiotics for neonatal infection to 90% by 2030; (5) a combination of (2), (3) and (4).
Of the deaths of 28,952 pneumonia in the UK in 2012, 27,520 were 65 and over and 58 were 0-14, [according](https://statistics.blf.org.uk/pneumonia0 for the British Lung Institute.
Data from the World Health Organization Global Health Observatory (GHO) shows that pneumonia has killed 880,000 children in 2016, accounting for around 16 per cent of deaths under five globally.
49,115 children died of pneumonia in the DRC in 2016, according to the GHO.
See the Save the Children for Fighting report for more information about the pneumonia campaign and the charity.
To support the Save the Children campaign to finish child deaths that can be prevented from diseases such as pneumonia, sign up our petition.
Save the Children is a partner of the Every Breath Counts coalition, a public-private partnership that launched last year on Pneumonia & World Day and galvanize goals are changing in the countries with the highest burden of pneumonia fatalities