If you think which fraction of the oil barrel is responsible for declining oil prices in the last month, you only have to look at the world's drivers.
In general, the future of RBOB gasoline at Nymex – which has a higher price than raw material, oil – is being traded on a discount against Brent for the first time since 2011.
There is a similar situation in Singapore, where RON 92 gasoline has been cheaper than Tapis's fat in recent weeks, emulating a pattern at the end of 2013 followed by the massive oil sales in 2014.
This is not necessarily a producer disaster, which can offset their gasoline losses with the profits of products that perform more or less, such as diesel. But there is an indicator that consumers in emerging markets, which are affected by the rise in oil prices in 2018 and weakening money, are at risk of stating the strike call.
Prices of the main gasoline products in Thailand, the Philippines and India have plunged since the beginning of October. But that has not yet been enough to stimulate reactivity as required. According to S & P Global Platts, in the Gulf of Persia, stocks of light, gasoline, mainly predominantly recorded recordings at Fujairah port for three consecutive weeks.
The problem is that the world has too much lightweight crudes that are most suited to gasoline production and very much more heavier types that are better for diesel, jet and oil fuels fuel.
In America, what is being extracted from the oil zone in West Texas is mainly mild and sweet crudes. Meanwhile, the heavier oil sources face difficulties: the Mexican production has been declining for a decade, while Venezuela is about to collapse and the lack of export capability in the oil pipelines has resulted in crude oil Choosing West Canada. below $ 20 and bargain.
It is a sign of despair for US freedoms to acquire heavier crude oil than Maya Mexico, which is now being discussed with a premium against the lightweight West Texas Intermediate, an abnormal situation that had not occurred since 2013.
It is not clear that this situation will be resolved soon. Although the increase in gasoline stocks in Fujairah indicates that traders expect shifts of shift from America and Europe to high demand Asian markets, Chinese car sales have decreased. Electricity vehicles increase their market share and conventional touring car purchases are likely to have reached the top.
The prospects could be better in India and South East Asia, but gasoline reductions compared to oil in Singapore suggest that fuel retailers still do not see that the liquidation creates an increase in demand.
In the meantime, there is a big problem going ahead next year: regulations that remain at the International Maritime Institute on the sulfur content in fuel used in marine transport, which will probably be more generating from middle doses to replace fuel, heavier and pollutant oil. When satisfying that with the sweet mix of crude oil that is currently being pulled around the world, it will mean even more gasoline production that is not & # 39; The world likes it.
At present, the balance between tight market for medium bats and excessive gasoline reduces raw prices. However, we must not eliminate the possibility that the average products of the crude oil barrel will be a most important factor in prices. Or the lower prices at the gas stations, thanks to the huge sales last month, finally make people go back to drive.
Not by David Fickling
This column does not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial board or of Bloomberg LP and its owners.