Monday , January 17 2022

Why gasoline in Ukraine is not in any hurry to get cheaper and what will happen to fuel prices further


The season of expensive oil (and the experts predict an increase in prices of up to $ 100 per barrel), which seems to be deferred. November 20, oil quotes on world markets were quoted again.

January's future on the ICE Futures stock exchange on Tuesday morning was trading at $ 66.57 per barrel, which was 22 cents cheaper than before the day. And in the evening, they scored another 4.6% – to 63.7 dollars.

Since the beginning of the month, quotes have dropped almost $ 20 per barrel. And, most likely, they will fall further. "Brent's actual oil cost is $ 40, the rest is the edge of speculators," said Gennady Ryabtsev, head of special projects in Psyche, to the country.

Such a trend in the world is very useful for Ukrainian drivers. Indeed, since the beginning of autumn, prices in domestic gas stations have broken each record. The cost of the A-95 connects (and in some gas stations and is progressing) to the psychological level of 35 UAH. y litr. Experts are scared even motorists with price tags at 40 UAH.

Refuelers have already started rewrite price tags. Gasoline, according to the A-95 consulting company, costs around 32 vehicles in the country on average, diesel – 31,7 hryvnias. gas – 16.3 UAH / l.

But while the process is somehow very slow. According to Gennady Ryabtsev, of product per month, large wholesale oil products increased by 12%, in small wholesale – 6%, and in retail – only 3%.

Motors: such a "discount" is similar to a statistical error. There's a simple "cancel" in the tank.

"With current price level 10 – 50 cops (Discounts – Ed.) – for anything. On an average 40l dance, this is as much as 4-20 hryvnias, even an additional liter, "Dmitry Voloshin's car owner wrote to Facebook.

"At first, 5 UAH was raised, then they dropped to 1/2 UAH … it seems to me that we have not fucked yet again?", Said the resident of Kiev Vlad Razor.

Experts make the biggest drop in gasoline still coming. "Country" understands when and how much gasoline, diesel and gas prices will fall.

Oil at 40?

He broke oil quotes, which the speculators broke by the end of October up to $ 85, up to November 20, of almost $ 20 per barrel.

January's future for Brent's crack on ICO Futures, London Stock Exchange on Tuesday, traded at $ 66.57 in bargain, which is 0.33% lower than on Monday, November 19. The future of the WTI crude oil for January on New York Stock Exchange (NYMEX) 0.16% over the same period, to $ 57.11 per barrel.

Several factors put pressure on oil. First, there is a surplus of "black gold". According to Gennady Ryabtsev, around 500 thousand tonnes of "extra" oil are daily thrown into the market.

Acceleration of usage, most likely, will not work. Against the face, in the light of the forecasts of a new global economic crisis, it is fit to talk about a drop in demand for oil and oil products.

Secondly, it is not clear what OPEC will say. The meeting of the cartel participants has scheduled for early December. It will be held in Vienna and will be assigned to extend the agreement on reducing oil production further. This is its third extension since 2015. And analysts are not sure it will happen. Reducing production is necessary to keep high oil prices.

This has a special interest in the OPEC leader – Saudi Arabia, whose price of $ 73.3 per barrel is acceptable, which is almost $ 7 higher than the current price. The Saudi is pushing the cartel to reduce the production of 1-1.4 million barrel a day. But not everyone supports this idea, in particular, against countries living in oil sales (Venezuela, Russia, etc.). Analysts do not exclude that this agreement on reducing production will not be extended, and, in fact, against the background of such prospects, they are proud of quotations.

Third, US President Donald Trump, who fears this could lead to an increase in price tags at American gas stations, is strongly against the decline in production. He has already softened penalties against the largest buyers of Iran's oil, and now he prepares dirt on Saudi Arabia.

Trump & trumpet could be the results of the CIA investigation to the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi information agents who are in fact already ready and can be advertised widely in time for a month meeting December OPEC.

"They may have an impact on oil prices," CNBC was quoted by the head of global merchandise strategy RBC Markets Capital and analyst CIA Helim Krof.

At the same time, the USA is increasing its own production – this year it has already grown 25%, to record 11.7 million barrels a day.

Fourth, according to Gennady Ryabtsev, the actual cost of oil obstruction is now not more than $ 40 with a surcharge of exporters of 10%. Everything else is speculative. An oil overlap equates to 500,000 tonnes a day and against the background of the forecasts for a new global crisis, it will grow only. Therefore, most likely, the quotes will move to $ 60 first, and then lower.

Why gasoline is so cheap

Ukrainian vendors of petroleum products have already responded to the global collapse of quotations. True, though not as active as the drivers would like. According to Ryabtsev, large wholesale prices since the beginning of the month have sink 12%, in small – of 6%, and in retail – by 3%.

The head of the "A-95" consultation agency Sergey Kuyun said that the network of gas stations reduced the price tags gradually. For example, on November 19, gasoline and diesel prices for OKKO and WOG have reduced 50 kopecks per liter. Since November, the prices for gasoline in these networks have risen 1.5 UAH / l, for diesel – by 50 kopecks / l. "Also, with 50 kopecks per liter, all cheaper fuels in the Chipo network, and the SKY network – came from 1 UAH / l. Such networks like AMIC, BRSM-Nafta, KLO, Nadezhda and Catral has dropped 9-39 kopecks per liter, "said A-95 report.

However, drivers believe that tankers reduce prices too slowly. "Sorry, I suddenly sounded that I had a fall of this type. First, it raised 4 hryvnias, and then 1 hryvnias was lost. This is a win , "said Aleksandr Tyurin of Kiev, commenting on the Facebook post for price cuts on oil products former president of the oil product market operators of Ukraine" Leonid Kosyanchuk.

According to the executive director of the UPK Group, Alexander Kirimov, the following formula works – cheaper oil per barrel for 1 dollar puts a minus in gasoline price at about 1.8 cents or 44 kopecks at the current rate. But if you're following it, it's evicted from the beginning of November that gasoline is supposed to lower the price by 8.36 UAH. per liter (decrease of approximately $ 19) in a barrel of oil during this period.

Experts advise motorists to get patience.

"The wholesale market was the first to respond to global trends. Now we see a daily reduction in the cost of fuel at petrol stations. Naturally, the retail market can not respond everyday to world prices. There is a factor delayed time – many fuels are bought for a fixed period and until the volume purchased at a higher price is sold and the supply starts at a lower price, retail can not respond. All prerequisites that gasoline and diesel in the near future will fall 1.5 – 2 hryvnia ", – explained" Country "director of the marketing and strategic development department" Alexander Melnichuk Republic of the Youth Union of the Republic of Oil ".

According to Sergey Kuyun, retail prices have the potential to reduce 2 UAH / l. "Given the latest global trends, their level can return to a mark below 30 UAH / l before the end of this year," the expert predicts.

Discounts with suspicions

Gennady Ryabtsev says that the price fall will gradually – 50 kopecks-1 UAH / l of each new batch. In addition, some gas stations will tackle direct price cuts, and some – will reduce them "indirectly", that is, the price tags will not be rewritten, but they will return loyal programs, canceled as a result of raising oil prices. Under these programs, a liter discount of gasoline and diesel can be up to 3 UAH, but only complete customers fill in full tanks.

According to Kirimov, the drop in prices for diesel, until recently, was blocked by the shortage of supplies from Russia. It was associated with the fact that Rosneft had moved the summer diesel production to the winter. As a result, the Prikarpatzapadtrans pipe, where the Russian diesel is going to Ukraine, turns to be half empty. Supplies are now normalized. The pipe itself has to fill it by about 40% (this is 200,000 tonnes a day), but Ukrainian consumers have enough of this and there is no shortage, which means that prices & Reduced more dynamic – up to 1.5 UAH / l by the end of November ", – predicts Kirimov.

But the gas is not so simple. In October, gas price tags capture records, which are more than 18 UAH / l. Now, according to A-95, they fall to 16.3 UAH / l. And the cost of a liter of gas in gas stations in Kiev and the Kiev region, according to Kirimov, is only 12.3 UAH. That is, even taking into account the edge of the gas station, the price should not exceed 13.5 UAH / l.

"Suppliers have accumulated expensive amounts of gas and they are now trying to sell it," explained the expert. And only after that the gas will begin to significantly lower the price – up to 2 UAH / l. In fact, by that time other factors may interfere.

"Today is special: the eurobliders blocked the main direction of gas coming from Belarus – the borderline" New Yarylovichi ". Country" and the owner of the Sintonec LPG Mikhail Shuban site.

The price of the Ukrainian gas stations can affect the dollar. Now the hryvnia has strengthened a little (almost 30 kopeks from the beginning of November), and this also contributes to lower prices for petroleum products. But if a new round of appreciation begins, the tendency can change dramatically. After all, all additional hryvnia in the dollar exchange rate gives more 80-85 kopecks per liter of gasoline.

Another growth factor is to clean up the emerging market. As Strana has already written, large networks lobby for more stringent control over the circulation of petroleum products – the sale of licenses, equipment for filling stations with level meters, new requirements for placing stations.

These developments have outlined in the draft reforms to the Tax Code, which Senedd has already adopted in the first reading. And although these developments, according to the tankers themselves, will lead to the closure of gray gas stations (what is called "recipients") and will not affect the price tags in any way, there are doubts about this . After all, after massive cleaning places for the sale of cheap gasoline, it will obviously decrease, and therefore the intensity of the competition for driver wallets will also decrease.

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