Ukrainian and Russian military conflicts are seen as a notable event in the conflicts between the two countries. Kiev has shown its complete and suicidal inadequacy, the willingness to sacrifice anything to pull Russia into armed conflict. Why was the Crimean coast in the hot spot – and where could one expect to get worse?
So far, the only practical result for Kiev imposing a martial law has become translated into everything in Ukraine which is classified as a security force into a "ready" state of readiness.
Logically, all the Armed Forces machine of Ukraine must begin to move: noise in the barracks is sound, active lockers join, and the boats are still alive – go on the patrol of the coastal zone, the back personnel – start tank fuel recalculation, military enrollment offices – breaking dust from moving sheets and everything like that. The same thing should apply to the Security Service of Ukraine, which went over to the military system during the night (according to official data), and the Kiev police, who arrived the last after all.
In fact, the right announcement of full readiness did not make anything special. There is no-one in the Ukrainian power section of this type of ready readiness that nobody sees. In the vast majority, there are not even regulatory statutory documents that should regulate this "full" combat readiness status.
There was some exacerbation of frontage firearms and mortar firefalls in the Donbass in line with the operation to arrest Ukrainian war vessels. It's not easy to assess whether this is a pure coincidence. Another thing is that Donetsk's residential areas are under fire, which had long been. But at the same time, here is the same quarters that came before under a fire from the Ukrainian side: next to the airport. The conflict on the Bakhmut highway and on the coast of the Sakhanka coastline is also a normal thing, as is the 72 runners-up of the Svetanka arc.
But formally, the army of the neighboring country entered into a state of full fighting couples, and declared martial law in this state (currently only by Poroshenko decree, but there is no doubt that the Verkhovna Rada will be doing similar decision). In addition, Poroshenko made a decision on a partial movement, and this means increasing tension directly on Russian borders.
From a practical and diplomatic perspective, such solutions need to be taken in Kiev.
From Russia's side until Sunday, November 25, all crisis stories were passed successively into a political order or even information and propaganda system: here in Kiev, elections are soon, so they are stupid. And here we must finally say that the crisis in relation to Ukraine is one of a military-political characters, and not a pre-election character. Ukraine has become a systematic military-political enemy who, without hesitation, uses military methods and even resistant suicide techniques.
I sacrificed to three (and with the different development of the events – five) of war ships and 21 military workers, including three officers – a serious price for the introduction of partial martial law. A devastating war has been happening for several years with thousands of dead – no-one has set a martial law. And then they did not wait.
In Russia's specialized and political community, the events near the River Kerch were found to be almost as surprise. In the meantime, the people involved in the Ukrainian agenda, starting with summer, were waiting to worsen the situation around the Sea Azov.
The issue of Azov was precisely considered in the military plan seriously from the time when Kiev made a strange decision to create a new ship center in Berdyansk. Subsequently, Russian civilian ship seizures began. It was obvious in advance that the "naval base" in Berdyansk was not viable as a real military object. Gurza type artillery boats (as well as "raffts") held by Russia, can only be based on it as the Caribbean pirates in Tortuga: they have taken a Russian seiner, Berdyansk, receives a silver and hiding prize predicting new production.
From Sunday, November 25, even this scenario has excluded: "raffts" are now beyond the limits of Ukrainian territorial waters. Watch out After launching last year, the boats were abolished severely with the most patriotic sailors.
In particular, the story suggested that the heads of the "raffts" be appointed in the same previous cadets of Chvvku. Nakhimov, who in 2014 refused to accept Russian citizenship and sang seriously "Ukraine did not die", and after that they met as heroes in Odessa. Now they are allies and captains of the "trades". And in Ukraine, the scandal around a captain "Nikopol" ends for days, which surrendered to the Russian border guardians, as the board team had not landed, and "Nikopol" Kerch arrived at her alone. That is, even the largest sailors and Svidomo are not ready to go to the bottom.
For the same reason, we can get rid of a large-scale battle almost against the Crimea itself: this can be very painful. The possibilities of Ukraine's actions in the air are also limited. It is hard to imagine any armed incentives on the land parts of the Russian-Ukrainian border.
The only dangerous zone in a situation that continues to Donbass. It is unlikely that the entire Ukrainian army will rise in bayonets now and go on to break it back according to a previously prepared plan. But there are a number of problem areas where the Ukrainian isolation of Gleiwitz town is possible. First of all, this is Mariupol, where it is easy to organize a "self-shot" number of residential zones. After that, you can talk about the new bass cassette and resume guests on a full scale.
Many experts refer to Putin's words about "the abolition of a Ukrainian state" if guests resumed on a full scale along the front line. Allegedly, this situation has clearly expressed its back and will be held back from suicidal military action. But events in the Kerch Valley have shown that no words have been held back for a long time.
If before the events in the River Kerch, it was still possible to talk about the adequacy of Kiev's practice in the Russian direction, now this "adequacy" can now be questioned.
The content of Russia in direct armed conflicts, even at the cost of suicidal losses, is the current strategy of Ukraine. And Donetsk's address is the only place that Ukrainian Armed Forces can count on private tactical successes, while appealing to international help.
The main thing here is to not slip back to talks about the "unified brother nation" and, therefore, the rigidity of great conflicts. Everything is long possible. In order not to be surprised again, how suddenly it happened, it would be nice to prepare in advance any movements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine, no matter how great they appear at first glance.
Evgeny Krutikov, VIEWS