Friday , March 5 2021

Bounce with a competition from

© Reuters. Recovery could be repaired other than the MosBirzh Ruble Index – As expected, on Tuesday, the Russian market went to repay after a sudden correction on an evening before the Sunday event in the River Kerch. And, as it was, it was possible to truly restore, apart from one ruble – had been on 2290 p. On the night, we finished on Tuesday just below level 2340 p. The index had to be worse: after closing on Friday above 1110 p. A flight Monday under 1080 p., He spent the whole Tuesday in the corridor 1095-1100 p.

It is hard to guess that MosBirzy's index is almost indebted for its growth in the Ruble in this situation. In closing the day before about 67.1, he consistently strengthened in the morning just to 66.5 rubles. – and then even more smooth by 19.00 Moscow time returned to previous posts.

"Last Friday, the market strongly responded to the decline in oil prices, but then it was settled, and against this background, Russian stocks are still cheap. So, as soon as it is World markets are over, the Russian market is trying to grow. On Monday, there was a largely emotional response, there were no stubborn statements from the West, and the market does not see any significant risks in that, "said Edward Kharin, Alpha Capital portfolio manager.

He did not hope to hope for a full refund: in general, there is not enough positive in the global market. "Today, everything came further, it was not just Russia's history, all developing countries' assets felt poor," said Oleg Kuzmin, chief economist in the Renaissance Capital. "And it's pretty good, as long as the history of the world is influencing us, if we see other markets moving and nothing happens in our country, it will mean complete loneliness."

There is a chance that the global market will regenerate – and this will support Russian stocks. "We can expect to revoke the financial policy of the Fed – more and more members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) they tend to believe that a hard rhetoric becomes unnecessary, "said Edward Kharin. At the same time, this is not just enough to launch the" New Year Rally "." We need other good news – for example, solving the problem of a trade war with China, but this is unlikely. However, even if the parties do not agree, it is enough that the US will defer the introduction of new duties – one positive and neutral event can form a positive background, "he said.

In terms of future ruble forecasts, opinions are different. "Recently, the barrel has dropped in a price of $ 20, and the dollar has risen in price with just a few rubles. Everyone understands that in January, the Ministry will Finance again goes to the market with currency purchases, so it's hard to talk about connecting the ruble to oil, "Oleg Kuzmin is sure. His colleague, vice versa, believes that improving the situation on the oil market can help the Ruble. "Although there is hope for the OPEC + agreement to reduce oil production. The future oil future curve has been reversed for a long time, now it has acquired a normal shape and this gives hope to continue to grow oil: earlier market participants showed clearly the price would fall – each next contract was cheaper, now every next contract is more expensive "- notes Oleg Kharin.

However, the dynamics of oil prices are not the basis for confidence: after receiving the last comment, the Brent barrel, which rose Monday to Monday from $ 58.5 to $ 61, fell suddenly again to $ 59.6.

(The text was prepared by Daniel Zhelobanov)

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