Green winteries and hot summers, dry soil and short-term rain bucket: A new report provides a closer look than ever in the future in the Swiss climate. And so also basics, where Switzerland must adapt to the degree of consequences of climate change.
Gian stays in the grass with a winter sledge, Nonna Lucia can not sleep during the hot weather at night, Valérie's farmer must water his cucumbers because the floors & # 39; s drier, and the homeowner once again clears its basement, which is back in heavy rain running completely.
With these stories, climate researchers from MeteoSwiss, ETH Zurich and the University of Bern's Oeschger Center show how climate change will change Switzerland over the next decades.
Basis for decisions
The "Climate Scenarios CH2018" is the third such report on behalf of the Federal Council after 2007 and 2011. On Tuesday, the researchers presented the results of their four-year work in Zurich in the media.
New to this report, the one can now provide quantitative information, says Peter Binder of MeteoSwiss, for example, how much precipitation is in heavy rain. Previously, one could only become more qualitative.
This is particularly important given the Swiss adaptation to climate change, says climate scientist Christoph Raible in an interview with the Keystone-SDA news agency.
"You need quantitative information, for example, to know how watering systems or flood defense lines need to be diminished." The report therefore provides a valuable basis for decision makers, in politics, but also for companies and insurance companies.
2018 is on a record course
Switzerland is drier in the summer, winteriest and less snowy, and above all, warmer. Since the start of the survey, Switzerland has already warmed approximately 2 degrees Celsius, compared to a global average of 1 degree and compared to pre-industrial times. "With 2018 we are on track record," says researcher Andreas Fischer's climate from MeteoSwiss to the media. "We are responsible for the warmest annual year in Switzerland."
If the global community does not take seriously climate protection and the ground continues to warm up, Switzerland expects more drier heat and summer days.
The longest summer dry period will take up to about a week ago by the mid-century, according to the report. Extreme drought, which occurred once or twice a decade, could occur on average every other year.
Tons of dead fish
This means being strikingly demonstrated by the summer of 2018, Fischer said. For example, more than three canned dead fish came from Schaffhausen from the Rhine, which died due to the high water temperatures.
But it could have been worse, Fischer emphasizes: During the summer heat of 2003 there were more dead fish. "This time, the authorities were better prepared, co-ordinating bodies became operational when critical water temperature was reached." Shadow rotation was dredged to create cooler hinges. The volunteers interfered with fish and brought them to safety in cooler water.
If there are dark storms with heavy rainfall, then come to the middle of the 21st century on an average of last water compared to today. Century deposition could even bring up to 20 percent more.
This continues to be a trend: since the beginning of the 20th century to the present day, the advent of a heavy heavy deposition has already increased by twelve percent. Physically, this phenomenon is well understood: warmer air can absorb more moisture, which then releases more deposition.
40 degrees in Geneva
In addition to the drought, it is higher than the whole heat that causes people to worry. By the middle of the century, summers could be up to 4.5 degrees warmer in an average year than they are today. People in urban areas, in particular, will suffer heat stress more often.
The highest temperature increases even more extreme: in 2060, the thermometer could climb to the Altar of the Alps up to 4.5 degrees, to the north of & Even the Alps up to 6 degrees Celsius is higher than today. In an average year, the thermometer in Geneva would show 40 degrees on the hottest day. The number of very hot days could rise around one day of summer to as much as 18 today.
The dry, hot summers face rainy, warm winters: the snow will be scarce, especially in lower parts in Switzerland. By the middle of the century, the zero watercolor limit of 850 meters today, or at the height of Einsiedeln, could rise up to 1,500 meters above sea level – for example, the height Davos lies. Under 1000 meters, snow cover will fall by half, and by more than 80 per cent by the end of the century.
The protection of the climate could do a lot
The report, however, gives hope: even if these developments can not be completely rejected, a global warming limit could be at two degrees compared to the pre- industrialist made a lot of stressed climate researcher Reto Knutti of ETH Zurich ahead of the media.
"With constant climate protection, around half of the possible climate change in Switzerland could be avoided by the mid 21st century and by the end of the century," he said.
However, Switzerland does not cover adaptations, said Raible in an interview with Keystone-SDA. However, it makes a big difference if Switzerland has to adapt to almost unresolved climate change, or which can effectively restrict global warming through climate protection.
"Adjustment to climate change measures should be ready for a situation worse than the best possible," said Raible.
As the report has also contacted a new website and web atlas, decision makers have a huge online database now available to tailor the development of each region in the future and make adjustment measures. (SDA)
Created: 13.11.2018, 12:12 cloc