Thursday , May 19 2022

Will the global crisis arrive this year or not?


The directors of Illy, RWE and Renault overseas companies asked what they think about the prospects of slowing down economic growth, the most affected sectors, how they are prepared, and whether they believe that Europe correct mechanisms to respond to it OK.

The economic representatives of America and Europe are increasingly pessimistic.

The New York Times survey of 134 executive directors of companies, such as Ford, Verizon and Morgan Stanley, showed that almost half believe that the US economy will end in the recession by the end of this year, that is, the year of & # 39, as the analysts predict.

The main reason for US pessimism is the first fall in the product curve in the current economic cycle.

The traditional fear factor predicts investors' concerns for the short-term future more than long term, but this will usually be followed by drop-in activity and prospects of recession.

Although the growth will be lower than expected previously, the German economy is still on track to record growth in 2019 – for the tenth year in a row. This is the longest period of continuous growth since the 1990s.

Also, a study by the Duke University among US financial directors has shown that almost half of them expect a recession already at the end of this year. The companies involved in the survey predicted a decline in the number of investments and maintenance of employment rates and increased. According to the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), the United States will fall into the recession by the end of 2021. As reported by the American media agency Bloomberg, ten percent of the respondents of & # 39 ; I think the recession will take place this year, 42 percent say this will happen next year, and 25 per cent said in 2021.

In January, a business research company, the Conference Board, found that Europe's biggest pesimism is found in the manufacturing sector, and the reason for that is a decline in international demand. In Europe, at the end of 2018, strong domestic use remained strong, while the unemployment rate continues to fall, while homes increased their savings. In the second half of 2018, Europe has already seen less economic activity, which, according to the Conference Board, will continue this year. They also find, especially in Eastern Europe, that pressure on labor costs, whose growth has already expired, will intensify. GDP growth will be lower than in 2018, which is also noted by European institutions.

The World Bank has also downgraded the global economic growth forecasts for 2.9 per cent this year, stating that the main reason is to slow down global trade and lower production. Their prospects, compared to NABE, are not as bad as the US economy will achieve 2.5% CMC growth this year compared to 2.9% last year, while China predicts a growth of 6.2 % compared to 6.5% last year, while the growth of GDP Europe is suspended at 1.6%.

What are the expectations of doing business in this respect and the following year, the directors of foreign companies from Italy, France and Germany were asked.

Dr. Thomas Sichla Photo by Tomislav Mataić

The German economy has recently seen a recent slowdown, which asked the government to forecast its economic forecast for 2019. Germany has a significant uncertainty about future growth due to the slow growth of the global economy, US defense plant, the fragile and weaker growth in China and the difficult situation in Italy. It is also increasingly clear that Germany needs to do more in the future in key areas such as artificial intelligence, batteries for electric cars and digitization for competitiveness. Some prospects suggest that more than half of German jobs are at risk of being automated or simply due to new technologies, which will create major business and social challenges. But in my opinion, we should not be pessimistic. Although the growth will be lower than expected previously, the German economy is still on track to record growth in 2019 – for the tenth year in a row. This is the longest period of continuous growth since the 1990s.
In our business, however, it must be emphasized that the energy industry in Germany and around the world is at the heart of transforming a turning point stimulated by devolution, devolution and digitization requirements. The parent company of RWE Ljubljana intends to invest over EUR 7 billion in its three-year three-year (renewable, networks and infrastructure, retail) units due to the above trends. The company also invests in emerging areas such as solar power plants, broadband and e-mobility. It was also announced that the integration of two leading German energy companies, E.ON and exciting companies were announced last year. After completion, a European company will be created, which will be in a perfect position to lead the European energy transformation. All of this shows that, in response to environmental, technological and economic challenges, energy is currently one of the most dynamic and difficult industries.

Personal Archive Photo Jean-Pierre Mesić

I am convinced that we can not talk about the crisis in Europe in 2019. There are some dark clouds in sight, but since we are strongly internationalized, there is no reason to fear. According to the forecasts, the Russian market is expected to increase by three percent, while the Brazilian market will increase by 10 percent. In general, if we prohibit brexit results, economic growth in Europe and other parts of the world will be stable.
The car industry should not have a great deal of trouble. Changes in sales and technology will continue. We expect an increase in all gasoline, hybrid and electricity sales.
In 2019, Renault will provide a speed of sales in Europe with the latest cars of Kadjar, Twingo, Koleos, Espace, Trafic and Master. Among them, Twingo has a special emotional meaning, as Revoz is the only factory in the world that is produced in Novo mesto. But the newest brand new model that will affect our sales figures is the new Clio, since the beginning of the first generation in 1990, this is the best model of Renault in the world. The new Clio was presented at the Geneva Motor Show on Tuesday, March 5th. In September, we will start selling it in most European countries. We are pleased to say that Revoz will be one of the factories that produce this exceptional car, which remains the best selling best selling Renault in the world and the best car generally in Slovenia. In addition, we have important plans with the Dacia model, which has been a brand that is safe from crisis situations during the last global economic crisis.

Riccardo Illy Photo of Leon Vidic

In my view, the global economy is not cooling the worst thing. I'm really worried about slowing down the world's trade growth, which has halved over the last five years. The reasons for this are defense measures referred against China by US President Donald Trump. In China, however, not only slow down economic growth, but also exports. Less global trade means less investment, which is what everyone loses. Looking at Europe as one country, this would be the largest economy in the world, with an outstanding potential for growth, which can also be appreciated by cultural and linguistic diversity. There is a cybernetic law, the law called the necessary variety, which says that those with a variety of behavioral patterns will be most effective and most effective, as it will be dealing with changes in the best environment. The mistake we made in the past is that we have not managed to reduce public debts and improve the financial position of Europe, which means that we do not have many places today to cope with a potential new crisis. The problem of many European countries, such as Italy, Greece and France, is too high public debt, which prevents shortcomings if there were new emergency and anti-cyclical measures. Italy is the smallest growing in the EU. First, due to high public debt, which accounts for around 130 percent of GDP and does not allow investment and public expenditure. Secondly, due to demographic changes, there is only a lower natural increase of Italy available. And thirdly, because of the uncertainty that the current government is bringing. The only countries that will be able to deal effectively with the upcoming crisis are those who have managed to reduce public debt under 60 percent of GDP or close to this value, as the only ones who can benefit from the actions of European Central Bank, such as quantitative release or purchase of bonds in order to draw money into circulation. But it's probably not enough to stop recession. Unfortunately, I have to find out that we have not learned a lot of previous crises. We should be more careful, but this is not the case.

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