Cristian Pîrvulescu, Three Scenarios For Romania after the Elections. Who will come to government and who will oppose Politics, Freedom News

A coalition between PNL and USR-PLUS most likely after the elections on Sunday, believes political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu, who was interviewed by Libertatea. This is the coalition that President Iohannis wants, although the election campaign is full of clashes between the two camps. On the one hand, USR-PLUS leaders accused the PNL of politicizing institutions, while the Liberals slapped them on the cheek.

Pîrvulescu says that regardless of the score, USR will not give up easily and will be a difficult governance partner for PNL.

“USR will negotiate very hard. I do not expect Barna and Ciolos to surrender because the PNL needs their votes to form the Government. In Italy, small parties even gave the prime minister because without them they could not form the governing coalition ‘, says Cristian Pîrvulescu.

PNL-PMP-UDMR Coalition

“This is an anti-reform scenario. Both parties, PMP and UDMR, can give a majority, but the Government cannot promote the necessary reforms, such as administrative reform,” Pîrvulescu said.

“Neither the PMP nor the UDMR want reforms. A state works through its officials, through bureaucrats. But they need to be told the direction, not the brainstorming. political in the administration ‘, he points out.

In addition, such a formula could be an opposition from PNL’s first vice president, Rareș Bogdan, who constantly attacked UDMR.

The political scientist claims that depending on the vote, another scenario might emerge: the PNL-USR-PMP government, which, he says, will be an impossible situation to control.

PSD – Pro Romania, UDMR plus national minorities

This is the most unlikely scenario for the government, but it cannot be ruled out from the start because of the recent increase in PSD in polls and the fact that a small turnout is expected.

However, PSD will also need Pro Romania, but also UDMR and national minorities to be able to pass laws.

PSD President Marcel Ciolacu has in recent days noted the names of several dignitaries for ministerial seats in a possible government: Alexandru Rafila (Health), Cristian Socol (Finance), Mihai Tudose (Economy), Leonard Azamfirei (Education) and Maya Teodoroiu ( Justice).

“This would be the catastrophic scenario,” Pîrvulescu said. “In vain they brought new people onto the lists, because the mayors and barons are the same, and they want the same thing, that is, slow down the reforms,” ​​according to the political scientist.

He gave as an example the attempt at Liviu Dragnea’s administrative reform in 2013, which failed precisely because of opposition from local barons, because the leaders in the territory would have lost jobs and influence.

GOLD could steal from the PSD electorate

Formations such as the Social Liberal Humanist Power Party (PPUSL), Romanian Ecological Party (PER), Demos or the Alliance for the Romanian Union (GOLD) will remain outside Parliament.

However, the latter might come as a surprise if it rises by a few percent.

Pârvulescu says that this party, which contains anti-vaccines and has anti-EU and anti-system doctrine, can hold between 1 and 2 percent. These are taken by PSD constituents, who came earlier by attracting former Beremians.

At the local elections, GOLD got 1% in the vote for county councils.

Voting in the diaspora could compensate for the lower presence in the country

In the absence of convening local elections, where all candidates for mayor or county council had every interest in bringing people to the polls, turnout in parliament could be lower than in the autumn election. Especially as the number of COVID-19 cases has exploded in the meantime, and some people may be afraid to go to the polls. A lack of interest could be added to these.

“The most credible is a percentage of 38%. I expect it to be a low attendance, but the diaspora to partially compensate. They will vote less than 100,000 abroad, probably 50,000, but against the background of low numbers who voted this is important ‘, Pîrvulescu declared for Libertatea.

He says neither PSD nor PNL are interested in high turnout, based on the ability to move their mayors. The only party interested in a large presence would be USR, but the internet campaign is having a weak impact on movement.

“At 40% attendance, PNL and USR have an advantage. It is said that the elderly will not attend the polls, but I am afraid that is not the case, there is a risk that the young people would prefer not to show, ‘warns political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu.

Why is it important for the UDMR to enter Parliament?

However, the political scientist says it is important for UDMR to be part of the new Parliament, to avoid ethnic tensions and propaganda in Budapest.

It questions the concept of ‘component democracy’, when power is shared, and measures are discussed so that everyone agrees with them.

If it does not cross the 5% threshold, the UDMR will still reach Parliament, but will have fewer parliamentarians, which means its importance diminishes.

Previously, UDMR supported PSD in Parliament, during the time when Liviu Dragnea led the party.