"The most important source of risk for economic activity in Poland is current global prosperity, and the rate of economic growth is banned with uncertainty associated with the amount of immigrant labor of Ukraine, "says the document.
In the previous version of the projection, no mention was made of possible threats to economic growth associated with the supply of overseas work.
"In turn, the main risk of domestic inflation, as well as the growth of GDP overseas, is the development of the energy market and its impact on domestic energy prices. The balance of uncertainty factors indicates that; The possibility of CPI inflation is slightly higher and lower than in the central position CMC growth rate "- he added.
NBP estimates that the assumptions adopted about the economic situation of the most important trading partners are subject to uncertainty, mainly due to the risk of slower economic growth.
"The potential for uncertainty is to tighten commercial disputes and further defense development in the field of world trade, as well as the conditions for the UK to leave the EU." Due to international commercial and financial links, the risk factor for projected projections is also a further development of emerging economies, which have been experiencing a strong depreciation of currency exchange rates during last months "- he was written.
The projection assumes that the UK government will reach an agreement with the EU and the links between these economies will remain unchanged at least until 2020, ie up to the end of the transitional period.
According to the National Bank of Poland, the increase in inflation in Poland will be influenced by increasing pressure and the cost of demand, as well as energy prices for homes and companies.
"The IPI inflation index will increase in the forecast projections and in the years 2019-2020 it will develop at 3.2% level in 2019 and 2.9% in 2020. The increase in CPI inflation will be caused – the influence of the reduction in the price – by raising pressure on costs and calling in a Polish economy The costs of enterprises are being increased especially by the growth of high-level projection horizon, which is a real increase in real productivity production "- written.
"Demand pressure will also be influenced by demand pressures reflected in the positive output gap that takes place in 2018-2020, while price growth sensitivity to changes in the domestic economic climate has declined in recent years. , energy prices for households and enterprises will increase. This growth will be the strongest in 2019. "- it was written.
The NBP projection assumes the development of an increase in electricity prices for homes for many years.
"Starting from 2019, the prices of the goods market will be gradually transformed into an increase in the home accounts." The projection suggests, as it happened in the past, that the Office of Energy Regulation will increase the price of electricity in tariffs for this group of entities for several years. However, it should be noted, with the situation present on the electricity market, predicting the level of AGU tariffs for future households is subject to exceptionally high uncertainty "- written.
"Since January 2019, the electricity bill for homes has also increased the costs associated with securing energy security and support for renewable energy sources." Inflation of energy prices will also increase the introduction of the issue fee, which will contribute to an increase in fuel prices in the next year. in the last year, the arbitration cases between PGNiG and Gazprom will end, however, limit the rate of increase in natural gas prices for homes "- added.
In the projection horizon, the growth of the GDP will gradually decrease – it is derived from the projection.
"In the foreseeable projection, the growth of the GDP will slowly slow down in the eurozone and energy prices, and the decline in the diet dynamics will be 2019-2020 together with an increase in the investment rate associated with potential recovery the production of a Polish economy and the EU budgetary inflow. "- It was written.
The use of homes will continue to be the main source of economic growth in the projection horizon, however, inflation will begin to be more restrictively bought by homes – the Polish National Bank believes.
"Therefore, the drinking rate of consumption will gradually decrease from the current high level in the projection horizon" – written.
Potential output growth rate in the projection horizon will accelerate to 3.4 per cent. rdr – assessment & NBP.
The NBP calculation shows that the output gap will expand due to the real GDP growth that is higher than the potential output dynamics in the current year.
"In 2019-2020, along with the slowdown in economic growth, the output gap will stabilize at 1.8% level of possible output" – written.
Along with the slowdown in the CMC growth rate, there will be a gradual decline in the number of employees' enrollment – indicated in the projection.
"Apart from the slower growth in demand for labor, this will restrict employee supply. The resource of unemployed people who can take jobs is small, which reflects low scale of unemployment, "he said.
Recognition dynamics will exceed the projection rate of labor productivity in the horizon.
"The salary dynamics in 2018-2020 will still be at a high level, more than the real growth rate of labor productivity in real terms. On the one hand, a higher level of unemployment and an increase in consumer price inflation will be triggered with a higher growth rate in 2019. also the rate of public sector pay increase, which covers almost a third of those employed in the national economy "- written.
"On the other hand, in the foreseeable projection, demand for work on behalf of enterprises will be slower, and pressure from households will also be reinforced by the presence of immigrants from Ukraine," he added.
Polish currency will strengthen in the foreseeable horizon – believe the NBP.
"The current level of domestic currency is currently lower than the level that derives from basic factors, so that the effective real-time exchange rate of the zloty will strengthen & # 39; gradually towards a balance rate. The expected growth rate of zloty has been limited by the interest rate reduction ".
The latest projection raised the GDP dynamics rate in 2018 to 4.8 per cent. of 4.6 per cent predicted in the July report.
"The increase in the CMC growth rate and its structure review in 2018 has contributed to the inclusion of data on national accounts for the second quarter of this year and the monthly quarterly indicators that indicate activity Economically, as a result of the contents of this information in November's November, in 2018, it is anticipated that the use of households will increase from the previous predicted round, and high level is influenced by the an extremely optimistic consumer feeling reported in the GUS business climate survey "- it was written.
"In addition, the contribution of net exports to the increase of GDP was revised during this year due to a stronger acceleration than expected exports growth in Q2. At the same time in the second quarter of this year, national spending on fixed assets increased from July's projection, which is partly limited positive effect on predictions of favorable readings of other GDP components "- added.
November projections were discounted for GDP dynamics forecasts in Poland for 2019-2020.
"In 2019-2020, the GDP growth rate is slightly lower than expectations from the July round, resulting from a negative impact on the economic activity of higher energy inflation rates while ending the impact factors that increase CMC growth in the current year "- wrote in the report.
Below are the central routes of November's forecast forecasts and compared to July:
|Forecasted November||July Forecast|
|CPI consumer price index (%, yoy)||1.8||3.2||2.9||1.8||2.7||2.9|
|Price index for core inflation after food and energy prices (%, yoy)||0.8||2.1||2.7||0.8||2.1||2.7|
|Food prices (%, gay)||2.8||3.3||2.8||2.9||3.5||3.3|
|Energy prices (%, gay)||3.9||7.2||3.6||3.6||4||2.6|
|CMC (%, gay)||4.8||3.6||3.4||4.6||3.8||3.5|
|Domestic calling (%, yoy)||5.3||4||3.5||5.4||4.4||3.6|
|Use of farms (%, yoy)||4.7||3.8||3.4||4.4||4||3.6|
|Drinking the public (%, yoy)||4.1||4.2||3||3.9||4.3||3.4|
|Investment issues (%, gay)||6.3||5.6||4.5||8.4||6.7||4.7|
|Export input (percentage points, y / y)||-0.5||0.4||0.1||0.7||-0.5||-0.2|
|Export (%, yoy)||4.9||5.4||5||4||5||4.9|
|Imports (%, gay)||5.9||6.3||5.3||5.5||6.1||5.3|
|Salaries (%, yoy)||6.8||6.8||6.7||6.9||7||6.8|
|Employees (%, yoy)||0.7||0.7||0.2||0.7||0.6||0.2|
|Unemployment rate (%)||3.6||3.2||3.2||3.6||3.4||3.3|
|Rate of activity (%)||56.3||56.6||56.7||56.4||56.7||56.8|
|Labor productivity (%, thousand)||4||2.9||3.2||3.9||3.2||3.3|
|Unit costs (%, thousand)||2.7||3.8||3.5||3||3.7||3.4|
|Potential product (%, gay)||3||3.1||3.4||3||3.2||3.5|
|Output gap (% of potential GDP)||1.3||1.8||1.8||1.3||1.9||1.8|
|Agricultural raw materials price index (EUR, 2011 = 1.0)||0.86||0.89||0.86||0.85||0.87||0.86|
|Energy price index (USD; 2011 = 1.0)||0.78||0.81||0.77||0.76||0.73||0.69|
|Inflation abroad (%, gay)||1.7||2||1.9||1.7||2||2|
|CMC overseas (%, gay)||2||1.9||1.6||2.1||1.9||1.7|
|Current account balance and capital account (% of GDP)||0.6||0.3||0.4||0.2||-0.3||-0.1|
|WIBOR 3M (%)||1.7||1.7||1.7||1.72||1.72||1.72|
According to ING Bank analysts
The NBP announced details of the November inflation projection. The biggest change for July round relates to CPI rates for 2019 (2020 unchanged at 2.9% per / y) – average inflation rose by 2.7% per cent 3.2% per cent year after year.
This is the impact of higher energy prices, NBP assumes a 18% increase in controlled electricity prices and a small 3.8% jumping in prices from overseas raw materials. The president of the NBP warns of the extremely conservative assumptions about energy prices. I hope that the press conference will explain why the NBP will increase as much energy prices in retail (from politics we will be 5-7%).
In our projections, we mainly assume a jump in wholesale energy and around 0.2pp we will change inflation to centers, we believe that the NBP will not touch the core inflation rate as its course would be 2pm18 lower than jump & # 39; the expected base rate caused by wholesale energy. Therefore, the core inflation route in 2019-20 does not change (respectively 2.1 and 2.7% y / y).