Tuesday , July 5 2022

MK News – [증시 전망] I hope to get up in the fall … `Santa Rally` December


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This year's domestic stock market index was self-contained. The warranty market came to a high record of 2607.10 in January this year, but failed to keep up with the 2000s in October and fall to the lowest level during the year, 1996.05.

In particular, the KOSPI attacked 13.37 percent (313.38 points) in October alone. Investors have been thinking that they can expect an increase at the end of the year, although they have recovered again this month.

In general, the stock market is expected to arise during New Year and New Year holidays, Christmas and New Year holidays. This is due to expectations for Santa Rally.

The Santa Rally is a statement from the US stock market. In the United States, on the fourth Thursday of November, the day after Thanksgiving was called "Black Friday". This is the day when the biggest sales season started last year, and it will be named because the lack of a book turns to be left because of the increasing use of this day.

About a month before Christmas holidays, when the US increases the use due to corporate bonuses. Santa Rally is the result of buying shares for family and friends at the same time, promoting domestic stocks and promoting corporate earnings, resulting in price sharing and stock purchase. As a result, the stock market can be strengthened by adding year end and start year to Christmas season.

Analysts say market experts expect boost at the end of the year. First of all, we can find some similarities with the Christmas Rally in Korean stock markets. According to the Korean Exchange, according to KOSPI's monthly change rate data since the 2000s, KOSPI increased ten times in December from 18 years to 2000, from 2000 to 2017. Despite the fall in December last year, taking into account the fact that and Kospi and KOSDAQ in the fourth quarter of last year had posted a large increase in general, it was a temporary adjustment. This year, especially in October, it has reduced the situation likely to rise in December.

Some analysts are of the opinion that the mid-2018 mid-term elections will be completed, which will promote stock market.

"The US has had 12 mid-term elections since 1970, and the US stock market has risen eight times out of 12 in November-December after the mid-season elections," said Jeong Won-ho, Investor in the Eugene Investment and Securities. Up to the mid-term election, uncertainty in the stock market was generally reflected, but after the election, stability was often found. The increase in the US stock market is likely to affect the domestic stock market.

In the mid-term elections, Senedd and House of Representatives take a breakdown that suggests that US President Donald Trump's pressure on China will fall. "As the dollar strengthens, it will reduce the concern that triggered the emerging market interest rates market." Korea will also be able to recover gradually from October shock. "

We can expect to see some improvement in the price of a share by buying dividend stocks due to expectations for end-year dividends. Dividends are the distribution of profits generated by an entity through its business activities to those who own it, according to the interests of ownership.

In general, the board of directors decides dividends to shareholders, and dividend and dividend ratios are finalized at the general shareholder meeting. Dividends are based on the operating year, and dividends must be paid within one month of the approval of the general shareholders 'meeting, except when the payment period is set by the general shareholders or board of directors' meeting. Usually, at the general stakeholder meeting, the company should be approved for the settlement of accounts. At present, the dividend will be determined, so the demand for dividends will rise at the end of the year.

Usually, when the dividend payment is usually addressed from the stock market when the stock market is not good or at the end of the year. A dividend product is a dividend per share shared by a current share price. As the price of the numerator's stock falls or the dividend equivalent to the denominator increases, the dividend product is increasing.

However, the demand for the dividend payment before the end of the year was driven by the significant decline offering the KOSPI bid in 2000. Telecom stocks and financial stocks, which are considered as a representative dividend stock, have risen strongly in October.

The effect of window fashion is also remarkable. Window wear refers to the act of buying and selling stocks intensively by institutional investors, as asset managers, to raise the profit rate.

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