The US President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and several US officials have warned about the upcoming storm: the concessions will be required from both sides as part of a “deal”. century ”painful.
To alleviate the pain and reduce resistance, US officials, such as Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, offer peace bait with Arab states to Israel as a reward for painful concessions on the Palestinian issue. The theme is finding many supporters among Israeli politicians, mental tanks and academic experts, who use the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002 as the basis for a solution of; r such.
However, accepting the link between the two issues would be a serious strategic mistake for Israel. Simply making peace awards beyond the two Arab countries with which Israel already has a peace agreement – Egypt and Jordan – are too enjoyable compared to the complexity and importance of the Palestinian issue.
This is true whether one considers that the possibility of a rubbish condition is a deadly danger – the situation that defines a lot of the Center and the Center that was left – or considered t that attaching large parts of Judea and Samaria as the best option, the position that represents most of the Right.
Why the bait of making peace with the other Arab states is negligible due mainly to the radical downturn in the power and influence of those states over the last 40 years – a process of appear in recent years to accelerate rather than be reversed.
Behind the logic of a regional solution based on Trump's thinking is the idea that the Arab states would have the influence over Palestinians to ensure that any deal they would receive would not be characterized by campaigns. in the future, for example towards the Arab citizens of Israel, in the attempt to further share Israel's land in favor of the Palestinians.
There are too many examples of the past running to the current that collapses this debate. Perhaps the best example is the Arab Peace Initiative itself. The plan, drawn up by the Saudis, undoubtedly the Arab state with the largest financial cluster, was advertised over 16 years ago. But since then he has had no influence whatsoever on Israeli-Palestinian or Israel-Arab relations.
The plan was irrelevant to the continuation of the Second Intifada, where there was only military assertion in Judea and Samaria, and there were three major conflicts between Israel and Hamas due to a lack of certainty in Gaza.
Nor was the will behind the plan to stop the division between Palestinians between Hamas Palestinian Authority and Hamas Abbas in the West Bank, which has made peace as complex, if not impossible.
Certainly, the Arab states had no influence over the other war between Israel and an Arab opponent – Hezbollah, a deputy from Iran. Although some of these states suggested that they were with the Israelites, their efforts had no influence in intensifying the war (which states such as Saudi Arabia have wanted, in the hope of t defeat Iran's deputy definitely) or bring the bout to the end.
NO ONLY, Arab states have little joint influence to ensure that Israel's concessions will stop Palestine's efforts to bring the fruits of Israel into action, but very few lead one to believe – after over 73 years t of attempting to act collectively since the arrival of the League Arabs in 1945 – that Arab states succeed in uniting the peace of Israel-Palestine.
After all, the only example of a close unity, in 1973, was about making war with Israel, rather than making peace, because the temporary segregation of Egypt after it signed a peace treaty in 1979 tested & # 39 strong. Unity also exists in the absence of these UN states and other international fora.
Indeed, there is every reason to believe that their depression will continue to feed Israeli-Palestinian and inter-Palestinian tensions. Three Arab states are obvious candidates to play the role of rulers – Syria, as Iranian deputy, Lebanon, forever about to become one, and Iraq, where the United States is still trying to compete with Iran to avoid Iraq slide to the Iran orbit. Iran and its deputies will have a great interest in undermining a peace agreement.
Close to their heels is Qatar and Turkey (although this is not an Arab state, but a political actor with a concentration in the Arab world).
Even links between the more friendly Arab states can be the basis for worsening the tensions in the Israeli-Palestinian relationship, as they have in the past. There is no certainty that Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia will necessarily see an eye on many aspects of Israel-Palestine's peace.
All these tensions will be absorbed too easily in a local location that is characterized by the difficult and fast split between Gaza Hamas and Brotherhood which is dominated by Brotherhood and PA Nationalist t .
Make sure Hamas, immediately after signing a contract on the White House lawn, would launch rockets, decorative balloons and thousands of exhibitors and terrorists against the fence to claim its claim to all Palestine, just like Hamas, along with Islamic Jihad t , he sent his terrorists after signing the Statement of Principles over 25 years ago.
Even such a comparison proves how weak Arabian regional support bait is. The raiders took their destructive exploits at the top of the US hegemony soon after the Soviet Union came to an end with the military victory of Iraq – an easy blitzkrieg compared to the German attack on t the victory of Poland and Israel in the Six Day War.
Today, Trump is signaling, as his predecessor, Obama, is a destination of the Middle East. How much more then, then, will the local detonators – supported by their regional sponsor, Iran – be willing to play the same role they did over a quarter of a century ago.
As my colleague, Professor Benny Miller observed a cold war or cold peace with the help of international powers. Warm peace or hot war is made only by local people.
Peace is not made on the lawn of the White House but in Ramallah, Jerusalem, Temple Mount and Gaza. The rest is a pleasant thought.
The author is Professor in the Departments of Political Studies and Middle East Studies, Bar-Ilan University.
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