Hurricanes or hurricanes that meteorologists of the generic name such as tropical cyclones have declined in recent decades due to human activity.
According to two new studies published simultaneously Journal of Nature, High rainfall causes more boring flooding, leading to deaths and causing more material losses than in the world, due to tropical storms that have declined due to climate change.
The problem is, as well as climate change, it is proven "anthropogenic" or caused by human behavior; it was found that other human activities worsened common natural phenomena to be so devastating.
In other words, human activity is most likely to cause a root that causes storms worse.
In addition to those with the potential to warm up the climate like releasing carbon dioxide, human activities are being urbanized, creating glossy glossers in different forms, replacing agricultural lands with concrete buildings , to urban roads villages.
"Urban development and climate change are human influences that aggravate cycling rainfall," says Christina Patricola, closing the findings of two new studies into American Scientific.
Patricola is a climate scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory who is also a researcher in one of two new studies.
He and experts agree that these two studies can be important information to improve the extreme weather prevention that we will experience in the future.
Flood and storm mitigation is not only done individually, but it has significant implications for urban planning that needs to involve different parties.
The first study, carried out by Patricola and his colleagues, was the first time to emulate how hurricanes and hurricanes like Katrina in North America and Haiyan in South East Asia would develop in a different climate.
As well as monitoring the development of the storm from the pre-industrial period up to the modern era, it included three climate projections based on different levels of planetary warming that it is anticipated at the end of the century.
He shows his findings, although wind speeds remain largely unchanged, heated in the oceans and the atmosphere has increased by 5-10 percent in futuristic models compared to conditions pre-industrial.
In the worst future situation – if there is not much effort to restrict greenhouse gas emissions, or if the global temperature has warmed around 3-4 degrees Celsius – rainfall is forecast to rise by 5 per cent to 30 percent and wind speed will increase around 7-28 miles per hour or 25 knots.
"This study adds a clear message to the message, we have to slow down global warming by saving energy and moving from fossils to renewable fuels, in preparation to face more extreme weather in the future," says Jennifer Francis, a storm at the University Rutgers quoted And Guardian.
The second study, led by Gabriele Villarini, a civil and environmental engineer at the Iowa University, was monitoring the impact of urban storms that could be destructive.
In particular, he researched City of Houston – the fourth most populous city in the United States and Harvey most affected in 2017, although the city's design is great and high tech. The storm in the city has never been so devastating since the end of the 20th century or about 2,000 years ago.
Using a climate model such as the Patricola study, Villarini and a team of researchers from Princeton University found that urbanization and urban topography also played a big part.
How exactly does climate change and city development cause worse storms?
According to Patricola's Bloombergclimate change may have caused an increase in atmospheric moisture so that the storm structure also changes.
Physics have predicted since the mid-19th century that storms will grow more intense only when increasing rainfall, in a warmer and wetter climate. When the air is heated, it is anticipated that the moisture increase will be around 7 per cent by Celsius degrees.
However, Patricola continued, abnormal storms that brought more estimates in hand, it could be because the storm concentrated more in the middle, draining the water from the edge.
Meanwhile Wired He wrote, although the storm is known to be sensitive to surface features – mountains, rivers, swamps; Urban research is neglected.
In fact, the development of cities can cause such fatal storms due to a phenomenon of the name "artificial heat island effect" and artificial rough.
In short, when air over cities is hotter than other areas such as forests, the effect can change the pattern of circulation of the atmosphere so that heavy rain is more frequent.
As a result, he said that Villarini, paving roads that prevent the soil from absorbing water, created flash flooding.
Even worse, rough surface and city buildings can add storm friction with spinning when creating barriers. If the storm "conflicts" with a high building, apart from its slowdown movement, the nearby winds that continue to move rapidly make the storm get in one place.