Wednesday , May 25 2022

Analysts: GDP third quarter figures were higher than expectations



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Based on the first estimate of the Office of Central Statistics (CAH) on Wednesday, 4.8 per cent of Hungarian gross domestic product (GDP) rose, adapted for seasonal impact and a calendar, by 5.0 per not in the third quarter of this year, compared to the same period last year.

Péter Virovácz, chief analyst of ING Bank, acknowledged MTI that the growth in the Hungarian GDP in the third quarter was significantly higher than market expectations. In his view, surprise was mainly due to agriculture better than expectation and the added value of the construction industry could grow more dynamic than the suggested production figures. Despite the weak industrial performance, foreign trade could be a surprise, which could be explained by further dynamics of foreign trade in services.

Despite amazing figures, Péter Virovácz continues to believe that the Hungarian economy could lose momentum in 2019, as the expected decline of external demand can not be ignored. This year, however, it is likely that the Hungarian economy will protect growth records of decades and a half, which should be strong enough for fourth in the fourth quarter. Given the positive unexpected of the last two quarters, it would not be as surprise – he closed his commentary.

According to Dávid Németh, a senior analyst at K & H Bank, fresh data is surprising as market expectations have slowed down. In his opinion, as in the previous quarter, the service sector was a third quarter boost, and he was also confident that the construction industry helped boost growth. Growth in retail demand and investment continues to fuel the consumer's side.

Over the next period, however, it is expected to slow down, with 4.5% GDP growth being followed this year by a remainder of 3.4 per cent. Internal motors will continue, ie the use of homes and investment will continue to drive the economy, while the environment will have an adverse risk for next year – warned Dávid Németh.

Takarékbank analyst, Gergely Suppan, market and market and industrial industry explosion saw more stringent, and the surprise was the result of more crops of corn, sunflower and grapes than in the third quarter of GDP in the last quarter. The industry's performance was scarce contributing to growth.

Regarding the use, thanks to the increase in real pay growth, the use of households steadily increased, although the growth in investments could accelerate , with the support of construction and import data. However, foreign trade could slow down growth, as the trade surplus has decreased significantly, partly offset by the surplus in services, he said.

In the fourth quarter, growth can remain close to 5 percent, so the analyst Takarékbank expects to raise its growth prospects of 4.6 per cent this year to 4.8 per cent, and next year's forecast to improve 4.1 per cent 4.2 per cent.

According to the CIB Bank analysts, considering the review of the first half-year data published jointly with the third quarter data, the expected annual growth rate can be expected earlier than expected, which may even be higher than 4.5-4.6 per cent.

In their comments, the role of tourism was significant in terms of GDP growth in the third quarter as well as market services during the first half of the year. In addition, the contribution of agriculture and construction was also outstanding. Growth growth was supported by strong internal demand and increasing the use of on-going households, behind a strong pay dynamics was one of the excellent machines. In the background of growth, in addition to domestic factors, the role of European activity could be lower than expected, paying particular attention to the German GDP dynamics, which assembled behind market consensus and & # 39 ; the second quarter.

According to Nyeste Orsolya, a senior macroeconomic analyst at Erste Bank, there is also a big question about how the contribution of net exports to growth is developing. The uneven performance of the industry, the remainder in the trade balance and economic downturn in the euro and German area has suggested moderate growth growth. The pressure of service exports is growing to total exports, so it may be offset some by the weaker performance of freight exports, he explained.

He added, based on recent data, that the expected annual growth forecast of 4.3 per cent this year is left, and it is not excluded that the expected growth will slow down for the coming year is not very significant due to the strong demand in the remaining home.

– MTI –

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