Wednesday , September 28 2022

Ye Bingnan: Commercial housing sales will be greatly reduced in 2019, real estate will correct in the longest cycle – Economy Observer Online – The Professional Finance News Website



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(Source: Panoramic Vision)

Economic Observer Online Internator Wu Peiyuan reporter "In 2018, the signal of withdrawing the money for the shed has been released. In addition, the previous boom cycle has reduced demand for overdrafts and confidence of the sector private. The real estate market in the third and fourth tier cities will use a modifying cycle circle. " Ye Bingnan, a macroeconomic officer at the hospital.

In its recent report, it is anticipated that the commercial housing sales area will be greatly reduced in 2019, the growth rate of real estate development investment will slow down, real estate policy will not relax, and the real estate market will correct longest circle.

In the last ten years, China's real estate market has experienced three rounds of decline circles. The most serious was during the global financial crisis in 2008. Many house prices have dropped directly by 20%, the sales area was provoking, prices were not at all, and there were properties play a part in GDP. From 1.15 percentage points in 2007 to 0.05 percentage points in 2008.

Thanks to the renewal of the situation, the cycle began in 2017, but there was no sign of recovery.

Ye Bingnan believes that the process of transforming shadows, in particular, has played an important part in supporting the thriving cycle of the third and fourth-tier housing market. On the one hand, it reduces the supply of housing stocks, and on the other hand, the demand for new housing has changed the housing of some cities in the short term. The relationship between supply and demand pushes short-term housing prices, attracting potential demand or speculative demand to enter the market, and increasing the impact of further boosting.

Ye Bingnan Census is that shantytown reform can contribute more than 15% to the investment of real estate development, but increases the instability of house prices in some cities and the government's implicit debt.

In order to control the risk of house price variations and the expansion of the hidden debts of local governments, funding for the reform of the shed has shown a tightening sign. Ye Bingnan believes that this means that the decline of this real estate could last longer than the previous two rounds.

"The first two rounds of the circle have used a free stimulus cycle after one year, and the cycle down has been more than a year. It is unlikely that there will be a significant relaxation of & # 39; The policy brings real estate prosperity. The downtrend will continue in 2019. "Ye Bingnan said.

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