Under the expectation of Shanxi cooking industry to actively integrate and compress capacity, recent domestic coal and charcoal prices have risen strongly, and the two-focus future is very high during the year. year.
Securities Times reporter learned the company that the third round of the increase in the charcoal market had been successfully implemented, and the downstream steel companies had achieved good results. In the context of the sharp rise in the price of double coke and iron ore, the decline of steel companies continued to decline, and some products had suffered losses.
The future renewed two new highlights during the year
On 23 May, the price of the main coal and coke contract fell slightly in the domestic futures market. From the late afternoon coal coal fell by 1.65%, 1909 1909 collapsed 0.89%.
In the past, the two-focus future has updated their successes in succession since 2019. On May 22, the main coke contract was the highest at 2,338 yuan / ton, up 12.4% from the lowest May at 2,080 yuan / tons, and the price of 1767 yuan / ton has risen more than 32%.
On the 22nd, the main contract of concealment of coal was the highest at 1,433 yuan / ton, up 7.3% from the lowest at 1,335 yuan / ton on May 15, and the price of 1,249 yuan / ton of start up; The year also rose by more than 14.7%.
In addition to double concentration, the blackest commodity that has been the strongest trend this year is non-ferrous ore. From the end of May 23, the main iron ore contract 1909 reported 728.5 yuan / ton, rose the highest intake of 734 yuan / ton, compared to the minimum of 641 yuan / ton on 15 May 14.5%, compared with the lowest 465 yuan at the beginning of the year / ton, has risen by nearly 58%.
"The recent prices for the double future have risen rapidly, mainly due to the strong integration of Shanxi's culinary industry and the expected ability to be able to compress." Zhuo Zhi, analyst in Zhuo Chuang, told reporters.
On 6 May, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the article “The Second Group Inspector Safeguarded the Central Ecological Environment provided feedback to Shanxi Province on“ Looking Back ”and Special Inspectors”. The inspectors' team drew attention to the fact that the cooking capacity of Shanxi's coating capacity remained strong, and the cooking capacity is “more and more”. At the same time, the requirements of Shanxi's optimistic industrial plan are ineffective, and the industrial adjustment is clearly inadequate.
In this regard, the Shanxi Province Development and Reform Commission, the Industrial Department of Industry and Technology, the Provincial Ecological Department of the Province, Taiyuan City, Changzhi City and Jinzhong City have held consecutive meetings and published a document saying they will promote correction in fully and accelerate the process of drawing up specific remedial plans.
According to the analysis of the Industrial Futures Research Report, with the environmental supervision, Shanxi cooking industry is expected to influence a new cycle of reform. The intensity and influence of this inspector has increased dramatically compared to the previous ones, especially for the culinary industry. capacity and pollution is higher than the standard.
The analysis highlighted that the main contradiction between the start of supply and demand since the beginning of this year has focused on the long-term supply side relief. Based on the above analysis, regardless of the industry's current position or the level of Shanxi's government, the environmental protection inspector and the impact of the correction will be more likely than in the past. the establishment of the People's Republic of China, and environmental issues were discussed during both sessions. The correction plan will be published at the end of this month or in the middle of next month. At that time, the coke supply can be suspended or the turning area may appear. On the demand side, Tangshan's limited production in the second and third quarter is not as expected, and many new steel mills in the north were gradually produced in the near future, but demand for coke can vary in the season. short, but the overall situation will stabilize. On the basis of high probability of implementing corrective measures in the Shanxi cooking industry, the medium and long term charcoal price center can move up.
Three rounds of charcoal market
Responding to the double price increase in the future market, the recent market place for charcoal has been increasing prices for three consecutive rounds.
Zhu Jinzhi told the reporters that the trading atmosphere in the market is still operational after the second round of the price of the van, and the position of Shanxi environment is expected to be more stringent, and Jiaojiao's mindset is optimistic, and breeding continues to increase.
This week, leading coke enterprises Shanxi and Hebei raised the third round of 100 yuan / ton, Shandong Jiaoxie also expressed, the enthusiasm of steel mills down is not reduced, as well as a small number of steel mills below which In the wake of the 22nd, after Hegang raised the purchase price, the third round of charcoal was basically taken, taking Shandong's market as an example, pre-factory reception at the secondary coke factory was 2090-2140 yuan / ton, up 4.96% of last week.
Taiyuan Housing Center also showed that the low sulfur primary charcoal in Linze Anze area has been raised by RMB 20 / ton of May 21, and RMB 60 / ton has risen since the end of April. After the increase, the low sulfur mask tax includes tax. 1640 yuan / ton. Recently, the frequency of environmental protection inspections in the Linyi area has increased, Essentially, the production limit in the floodplain and the Hongdong area is the same as in the previous period. the production limit is about 30-50%; the production limit in Guxian is about 20-30%. Some coke enterprises have temporary restrictions on production, and the overall effect is limited. The third round of charcoal has risen over time, and the sale of charcoal enterprises is better.
According to the analysis, the coal wash in the Linyi area of Shanxi has started to decline slightly recently. Clean coal sales in the mainstream area are good The independent coal wash factory has donated; The best production is due to raw coal shortages, and the output of clean coal is reduced. In addition, high sulfur primary charcoal mines in the Luliang area of Shanxi Province were suspended due to the relocation of working surfaces, and the supply of main coal coal types continued to fall.
As the range of promoting charcoal continues, the purchase price of Coke Hegang is raised by RMB 100 / tonne, first grade charcoal (A (12.5, S, 0.65, CSR≥65, MT≤7), after Raised RMB 2,350 / tonne sulfur medium charcoal (A≤13, S≤1, CSR≥60, MT≤7), 2150 yuan / ton after rising. Currently, Shandong, Hebei mainstream metal enterprises are basically The third round of charcoal price increases The general list of the charcoal enterprise is low level and the load is in good condition.
“Shanxi is expected to protect the environment and reduce capacity to have an impact on the market. In fact, while the environment protection checks in Shanxi were relatively frequent recently, as Linyi Jiaozhou's production limit was 20% -30%, the driving load in other regions was still high. , and Previously, there were intermittent production restrictions in Linyi, so the overall effect was limited. ”Zhu Jinzhi said that the reason why coke prices can be increased continuously by three rounds is because of the low list of cooking plants and the enthusiasm of steel mills. It has to cause. Although the market has been concerned about the limited production of steel enterprises in the Tangshan area, the actual operation is not as strong as expected. Steel mill charcoal stocks are currently at medium levels, and individual steel mill stocks are relatively low. The reason for accepting the increase in coke prices is that there is a demand for replenishment.
He said that the current port of Shandong port charcoal is 4.06 million tonnes, which is at a high level. Port stocks have not yet been released, but after three rounds of charcoal prices have risen, some traders have started to raise profits, and there is a possibility of consecutive consignments. The current cooking plant has new expectations, but steel mills gradually create resistance when profits are squeezed. Unless Shanxi's production restriction policy is introduced, charcoal will continue to increase pressure, and the short-term coke market is expected to show a stable operating pattern.
Produce profits from steel mills
In the context of production of raw materials such as iron ore prices and charcoal, what is the trend of the steel market?
"Since May, the US has suddenly set tariffs on China's exports. The prospects for Sino-US trade negotiations have become more pessimistic, but the steel market has not However, due to iron ore, Coke has seen faster and faster progress, which has not only failed to increase the profitability of steel mills, but has shown rapid deterioration, and some varieties have suffered losses. "
Analyst Ouye Yunshang Zeng Jiesheng told reporters, from the data point of view, compared with the same period last year, that rebar rods and wire rose by about 2%, while the prices of hot fuel , cold roll and other types of related sheets have fallen by about 6%. However, the price of the area of iron ore in the same period has increased by as much as 60%, and the price of coke and scrap has also increased by around 10%. In terms of rising raw material prices faster than prices steel, the profits of steel mills gradually reduce. According to estimates, the current profit of steel rebar mill, hot and cold roll is 341 yuan / ton, 258 yuan / ton, -129 yuan / ton, while the steel mills in the same period last year was 740 yuan / ton, 957 yuan / ton, 673 yuan / ton, the decline is more than 55%.
“More importantly, the current future of raw material has risen even more, and the increasing expectations are still strong. This will also drive the price of the place, and the steel market has already seen weak progress. The profitability of steel mills is likely to fall further. ”It is believed that if our iron ore or charcoal, the supply of inadequate supply is exaggerated, and is expected to be reviewed, and there is limited space. to increase further. How the final trend still depends on the demand for steel.
According to the data from Jinlianchuang, the output of steel in April was 102.05 million tons, and the average daily steel output was 3.402 million tons, which was significantly higher than the data in March (the t The output of steel in March was 97.87 million tons and the average daily output was 3.157 million tons). So, for the steel market, which is relatively crisis this year, the high supply remains a strength affecting market price trend.
Wang Siya, an analyst at Jinlian Steel, said that while the overall demand in April was relatively stable, the market was smooth, but there was no significant increase. The current profitability of steel mills is more objective, and the overall price is still 350-450 yuan / ton. In addition, the current market price remains at a relatively high level and is not tied to a future, so the enthusiasm of producing steel mills is still relatively large. Along with the current operation of some steel mills, it is almost a double profit pattern. At present, the supply of steel products has risen. In the future, if there are no major environmental factors such as large environmental protection, the steel mills are unlikely to actively reduce production. Therefore, in terms of the supply of the steel market, the overall situation remains at a high level.