A bioterrorist assault with the fish virus could reveal weaknesses in global systems with potentially catastrophic effects and affects the world for 10 years, Says a study published in the Global Biosecurity magazine.
A team of researchers from the University of New South Wales (Australia) held a number of international experts to study and created a simulation model of small fish assault in the Pacific Ocean region, with the aim of look at local, regional and global preparations to fight the disease.
"Through the mathematical modeling of the transfer of a small vaccine, we simulate a bigger bioterrorist attack in the worst case," explained the study researcher, Raina MacIntyre.
According to the simulation, the first case of hemorrhagic puppies would occur in a private hospital in Fiji, but it would not be diagnosed as doctors are not familiar with disease (it is considered that the fingerprints are removed since 1980). Theoretical case would extend to 200 people 40% would die.
The virus would spread, local health systems would be overwhelmed, and media reports would create a huge panic. Only by 13, a rash would be diagnosed correctly. Then when would the World Health Organization (WHO) state that the public health crisis is of international importance, while Interpol I will know it as a bioterrorism assault and it would be estimated that the first cause of interruption occurred at an airport.
By then, the affected number would reach 2,000 people, including doctors. The simulation continues, and accordingly, when 32,000 vaccines arrive at Fiji there would be a larger scale case in another country with more population.
In the worst case of the study, only 50% of those affected by small food will be isolated and only half of the people who had contact with the illness would be identified and & # 39; u vaccine. The epidemic would spread rapidly worldwide.
During the final phase of the epidemic, which would be by then become a pandemic, the workforce would be declining, which would affect infrastructure such as transport, communications, energy and food supply. People would lose trust in governments, while misunderstanding and poor communication would worsen the situation.
"Under those conditions, the model shows that more than 1,000 million doses of vaccines and 10 years to stop the epidemic", scientists argue in their study.
"Results of the exercise are familiar"says Michael Osterholm, biosecurity specialist and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research at the University of Minnesota. "All countries in the world should consider the results and lessons learned," he added.