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A new tool to trace coronary cases could facilitate epidemics



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MADRID, February 21 (WASG EUROPA) –

Algorithms that use fingerprint data in human blood can allow scientists to evaluate the size of collar cases and to identify hot areas of cholera transfer more accurately than ever, according to a scientist-led study of the Bloomberg Public Health School of University of Johns Hopkins, in Baltimore, Maryland, United States.

Current methods for cholesterol tracking are largely dependent on reports from local hospitals for cases of colele-like diarrhea and are relatively incorrect. In the new study, published in the Wednesday online edition of the Science Translation Science magazine, scientists developed algorithms to develop machines that use the results of multiple colele antibody tests to identify newly infected people correctly.

The team found that an algorithm that uses a set of antibodies measurements could be highly sensitive, with very positive counterfeit rates, if someone had had a cholera infection at different times during the year before present the blood sample, for example, within the previous 45 days or the previous 100 days.

"We believe this could be a new useful tool not only to track the incidence of collar in different populations, but also to measure how different cholera management interventions work," said lead author of the study, Andrew Azman, assistant scientist in Department of Epidemiology at Bloomberg School.

Lightning occurs when the water and sanitation infrastructure is not safe. I'm caused by the bacterial Vibrio cholerae & # 39; and has water diarrhea that can cause dehydration and loss of life-threatening electrolytes. It is believed that the disease infects 2 to 3 million people and kills more than 100,000 people worldwide, especially in Africa, South Asia and Haiti. Recent major cases in Yemen reported for more than 1 million cases, however, because the health surveillance infrastructure has declined in the country, the actual number of cases remains unknown.

Although a key first step in controlling the globally has a geographical scale and spread rate, public health officers in low income settings can make rough estimates generally based on the number of patients with diarrhea of ​​water visiting local hospitals.

"If we want to get rid of the globe, we should be able to count the cases correctly, and we need this study," said Azman. "Even in places like Bangladesh, where a cholera has been studied for decades, we do not have a good idea of ​​how much collar exists and where it tends to happen in the country."

The study was carried out by a team of scientists from different organizations, such as the Bloomberg School, the University of Utah, Massachusetts General Hospital and the International Center and Epicenter for Diarrheal Disease Research in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

The last 1,569 results of blood tests, which included measurements of different sets of antibodies against colele in local cases of collar and uninfected connections. Azman and his colleagues used the antibody data to "train" learning algorithms or program machines to identify people who have been infected with cholera during the last few weeks or months.

"Different types of antibodies against Vibrio cholerae tend to increase, reach their peak and return to normal levels at different times after contact with cholera, so we can use & Those differences in antibody responses to estimate if an individual became infected, "said Azman.

He added: "Having a test that allows us to know if someone has had a recent colelera infection can open the door to track cholera transfer trends in a population through regular surveys where a random group of people is asked to # 39; n provide a reduction of blood ".

TWO MESSOR OF ANTIBODIES AGAINST THE CHALLERGE USE

Such tests would also improve the ability to better understand how new interventions against a colleague, including improvements in water and sanitation and vaccines, will result in reductions in risk of collars. The use of six different tests of antibodies may not be impractical in low resource settings, but Azman and colleagues discovered that they can estimate the recent time window for the two most useful measures of antibodies. colera. Cholera infection with the one accuracy and much more accurate than the results of the individual antibody test.

The team validated its two-step algorithm by finding that it was continuously when an independent set of blood test results were applied by 38 volunteers in North America who were infected by V. Cholerae & As part of a clinical trial for a colera vaccine. The volunteers in the control group did not receive the vaccine.

Finally, Azman and his colleagues set up software simulations of various types of collar cases and zero-simulation analyzes (where their antibodies were measured to a randomized subset of the population). They find that testing only 500 people after their cause and the application of their algorithm could create good estimates of coleral frequency during these simulated epidemics, especially if the epidemics were relatively short and lasted for weeks or months.

These developments can provide a tool that is needed to measure and accelerate progress towards eliminating a college as a public health threat by 2030, a recently announced goal by the WHO World Purchasing Management Task Force.

"Our approach worked quite well in a range of epidemic sizes and even with very small sample sizes, suggesting that models such as ours could be useful, which are relevant to blood abstraction data healthy people, to better understand broadcasting cholera in the field, "said Azman.

At present, he and his colleagues work and plan other projects that use the results of antibody tests to estimate the incidence of collar in Bangladesh and in other countries where collar cases are still in common.

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