The relationship already stressed between US solicitors and two supporters of President Trump's examiners, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Prince of Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi Crown, seems to be aggravating. In recent days, reports have indicated that a growing number of congressors and US women are expected to pass a decision that will end US involvement in the Yemen Home War. This decision would represent a direct challenge to President Trump, who would then have to consider using a presidential veto. Although the Middle East Trump strategy can not have a lack of clarity, both MBS and MBZ are inevitably central to influence in the region.
The hostility between Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Congress. has been particularly intense under the current president. The ongoing support from the Ministry of Trump of the military-led coalition led by Saudi to fight against Houthi rebels in Yemen has become the most important focus of this tension. US media sources have indicated that a group within the congress is considering replicating a version of the decision passed by Parliament 56-41 last month to reconcile Ty Gwyn and Saudi Arabia following the Khashoggi murder. It seems that the public in the United States is mainly against the US military cooperation in Yemen, mainly accused in Saudi Arabia, and specifically MBS, for the crisis. It seems that the US Congress now reflects the views of the public. This decision would put limits on the amount and type of US aid in Yemen. Senators, like Mike Lee, R-Utah, state that the decision to support the coalition, taken by President Obama and Trump, has never been voted and approved by the Congress. The support for a new strategy in the United States is broad, as Steny Hoyer, the newly elected Democratic Minority Leader of the House, announced that he would co-sponsor the legislation. Several Republicans now also appear behind the new approach. Associated: The world's most amazing Oil and Gas Company
In the Middle East more generally, the Trump strategy fails to raise confidence in both Arab leaders in the middle of this battle. The constant threat of withdrawing US troops completely and giving up Kurdish forces in Syria has sent shifts down belts both MBS and MBZ. Both young leaders, who are currently extensively involved in the transformation of their societies and their own economies, are aware that Washington's support to these two key USA emissions could be changed by one tweet. Trump support appears, from at least, to be based on an emotional rather than logical approach. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are increasingly worried that US support is hindering, even though the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo fails to exacerbate increasing fears. The continuation of anti-OPEC oil strategy tweets or a Saudi-Saudi oil-based strategy by Trump fails to address the fears of these two key OPEC figures.
The most visible sign that MBS and MBZ are considering changing side, and reducing their full support to Washington in the US, is that they have not flown to the U.S. for a notable period of time. For Saudi Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman, it is clear that a trip to the US is a legal and political risk. He would face the threat of legal proceedings regarding the Khashoggi murder and political pressures regarding the Yemen War. Both MBS and Mohammed bin Zayed must also worry about the potential findings of the Mueller investigation. Mueller is currently focusing on possible interference in U.S. elections, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are potential targets. Links between Troth's entourage and thin Saudi-UAE and financial groups are assessed. Qatar, currently found in the GCC, is also being scrutinized. There are already links between the Arab governors and Trump accountants, such as Jared Kushner. Meetings between MBZ, Kushner and George Nader, an Emissary of UAE, are already being tested. These meetings have even been linked to the Russian connection, through the sovereign wealth fund of Erik Prince and Russia, CEO of the DRIF Kirill Dmitriev. Relevant: Global Olympic Boost Oil Prices
If the two princes of the Arabian crown face more pressure from the U.S. Congress. or the Muller investigation, you're expected to break in US-GCC connections. This will not only affect the geopolitical and military operations of the United States and European allies, but will also have a direct negative result for the OPEC situation towards the United States. Currently, Oral poster faces anti-knitting and Trump tweets for lower price oil and increasing progress. To date, it seems that the OPEC strategy is to ignore Trump cuts. If, however, the two main power brokers in OPEC are threatened directly by Washington then it is expected to change a situation on a full scale to be expected. The Saudi-UAE geopolitical policy already has Eastern prejudice. There will be a political storm in Washington but pushing two Gulf powers even closer to Moscow and Beijing. By not taking a pro-Russia approach or China, MBS and MBZ are raising their own and future power. By not taking a side, the Arab princes may leave themselves vulnerable if a storm expires in the United States. It looks like the foundations will take a back seat to geopolitics in oil markets as this confrontation plays. The political survival of the two princes will certainly become a leading factor in OPEC oil strategies.
Gan Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com
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