Thursday , September 16 2021

Why do people prefer and what will happen to the stocks?

Savers are turning to this alternative, which is cheaper and doesn’t have the US $ 200 limit. What could happen in the coming weeks?

There is an unexpected ally to him central bank in their battle against the dollar. The fall of banknotes in the Stock Market (so called ASE dollar) that yesterday was below the “unity” ($ 142 the official taxes plus $ 139 each operated in the market), makes many of the buyers through home banking go to buy tickets through Stock Exchange. The old wish of the BCRA and the Ministry of Economy: that the dollars are donated by the private sector and not the Central.

It happens that with becoming an MEP dollar, there is no fall in reserves. Private investors are those who sell dollars against pesos with the bonds. The existing dollars, therefore, change hands but there is no fall in the official coffers (which are deflated more than US $ 6,000 million this year). In addition, there is no quota of US $ 200 available for tickets in the market.

At the BCRA they find more dollar buyers of the Stock Exchange than through home banking in the entities

At the BCRA they find more dollar buyers of the Stock Exchange than through home banking in the entities

New savers, same search

You can buy the amount you want. And, as a final incentive, a week ago the Government reduced the parking (a period of holding the title before selling it and getting the money) from 3 to 2 days – which reduces the risk of the transaction-.

But the BCRA, moreover, found that many of them were authorized to buy dollar “savings” that they do not: either because the MEP is more convenient or because it is no longer a business to make the “mash”. That is, with the prices being so low, paying $ 142 and then selling it to the blue which at $ 152 provides a minimum profit. For the 200 dollars allowed to buy, profitability reached nearly 10,000 pesos (at the peak of the blue $ 195) and has now dropped to 2,000 pesos.

The super dollar trap implemented in mid-September had a strong impact on the purchase of US banknotes by individuals. In particular, US savers netted $ 339 million in October (latest official data). Fundamentally divided into:

-Changes for hoarding (u $ s199 million, a decrease of 68% compared to the previous month, as a result of the regulatory changes introduced in mid-September).

-Expenses made with cards for consumption abroad (about US $ 102 million, with a 74% fall compared to the same month the previous year, within the framework of continued border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic).

In terms of the number of operators, nearly 1,100,000 individuals purchased tickets, though about 53,000 were sold, with buy and sell per person for US $ 190 and US $ 195, respectively. The number of people who gained access to the official dollar represents a fall in relation to those who had been operating in the previous months.

Stocks set up in 2019 will wait for several more years until there are dollars

Stocks set up in 2019 will wait for several more years until there are dollars

The stocks came to a standstill

In September, for example, there were 3.4 million buyers of the “unity”, which totaled US $ 631 million. And in August, the highest demand this year was 4 million, with a total purchase of US $ 950 million.

In this way, the number of people accessing the official market is well below last year’s numbers. In September 2019, only by operating “lightweight stocks” with a quota of US $ 10,000 per head, about 1.7 million savers totaled US $ 2,891 million.

In October 2019, meanwhile, 2.5 million people had sought refuge in the dollar and bought $ 4.2 billion in one month. The decline in demand for official savings dollars in October 2020 can be explained by the regulatory changes introduced in mid-September, through Communication “A” 7105. These “super stocks” included capacity management and monitoring. economic and income requirements for opening new savings banks in foreign currencies, and restrictions on the access of joint owners to buy dollars for the formation of foreign assets.

The minister Martin Guzman He said at the UIA event there is no option but to maintain dollar controls until Central’s reserves grow. So it is believed that it will take many years for the restrictions to relax, at least for individuals.

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