Tuesday , October 4 2022

The G20 party concluded that the reality appeared: the dollar raised 2.35% and the country's risk grew 3.72 percent



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The G20 meeting celebrated. Now reality came to full. Central Bank must have learned that reducing the rate depends not only on local humor, the financial rate or the reduction in inflation, but also on what is going on. ; n happen in the world and what's happening is fearful of all investors including Chinese and Americans.

Wall Street dispersion, with losses more than 3% in the main indicators, because they see that intentions Donald Trump to reach an agreement with China, a sign of Argentina's vulnerability. One of the most vulnerable countries is in this conflict and there is no tendency for Liquid Letters (Leliq) that prevents investors from covering themselves by going to the dollar .

The former government tried to go to China to supply the IMF. Y exchanges, the money for USD 8,600 which gave a guarantee at a rate of 8% per annum, while construction of the southern dam was to be left and soon they would be the suppliers of turbines and all the spare parts of the turbine hydroelectric works , except being installed in Patagonia with strong tax benefits. The Chinese take advantage of the need to produce and appropriate territories. Here is the real war that is played in desks.

That is why Trump announced in the G20 investments i Mauricio Macri in energy and other items. The Argentine president is hoping to put a brake on the Chinese expansion, beyond what the new managers got more. exchanges from the Xi Linping government.

A sample was the risk increase in the country of not less than 3.72% to 724 basic points. And not only because dollar bonds have risen less than a US dollar, but because US $ 10 Treasury has raised prices and curve with shorter bonds that have been flattened. US investors know that bonds 2, 3 and 10 years have similar forms, emergency tools.

For that, the decline of the half-wheel dollar on Thursdays and Mondays, was day flowers. On Tuesday, the dollar ended at the highest level of the day and was a buyer on Wednesday. The future of the Rofex, has also closed in the maximum in each month. He stopped playing the rate on the dollar price in the future. Now, the price identifies the economic tension with the associated political factors.

In banks and exchange houses, the currency rose 70 cents (+ 1.86%) to $ 38.31. The marginal dollar, with a few businesses, rose 50 cents to $ 36.50.

But where the increase was made and very few councils were rising, it was in the wholesale market, where the money raised 86 cents (+ 2.35%) to $ 37.40, the same value as it got when the financial crunch.

The market ignored that the Central Bank in the Leliq tender not only dropped the cut rate to 60.016% per annum (0.47 points less than the previous day), but absorbed $ 29 billion due to its holding $ 163.333 million, more than I needed to pay the due dates.

"The end of the month has passed and now there is a reality. Many investors left pesos from investment funds that moved to the dollar. What happened in the United States was a lot of fear and, in addition, we are in December of the month where dollarization is higher than in the remainder of the year, "one operator explained" But pay attention that the dollar rose in every country Ladin America, "he added.

Looking at the quotes, you can see that the dollar has risen 1.01% in Mexico, that Chile's cilel is its third consecutive reduction and the truth closes at 3.85 dollars.

The reserves lost USD 195 million and it was 51,101 million, despite the fact that the foreigner, mainly due to the increase in gold, won 107 million. The payments were USD 8 million to international institutions and 1 million to Brazil.

The Merval Index of the main shares, managed to add 0.22% with businesses for $ 577 million, volume almost 30% lower than previous wheels. Highlights were Transportadora Gas del Sur (+ 3.04%) to YPF (+ 2.36%).

On Wall Street, Argentina's RRRs -Applicated from shareholdings quoted in dollars- have achieved only three increases. Not more than 1%. The most severe falls were Irsa (-8.38%), Despegar (-4.60%), Galicia Financiero Grupo (-4.24%), Corporación America (-4.05%) to Mercado Libre (- 3.97%).

The future of the Bolsa de Oriente index, which begins to operate in the western evening, at the end of this note, was not lighter.

Wednesday is a purposeful day that will prove the consistency of financial policy, and Moody warned that it will "constrain significantly on economic activity" and forecasts of inflation "will continue at high levels in 2019." Although it highlights the health of the financial system, it anticipates an increase in the leakage of loans.

The Central Bank now is corrected by a reality to try to reduce the rate because it knows that any excuse is good for dollarization in December.

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