Monday , June 27 2022

The Country Risk falls by 5%, with more certainty about candidacy and distancing the "default" spirit.


Y Country Risk is still very high The instability factor represented by this indicator reflects the t impossible to face Argentina to go to the voluntary debt markets. However, the. T clear kick who's tested in this wheel gives me a glimpse better perception financial market agents, especially abroad, time electoral dispute which will be carried forward in October a changes that will create economic policy.

They are already starting define the applications for the PASS, their lists must be prepared before 22 June. On the side of the party we control, there are no major developments and speculation Mauricio Macri, which can aim for a second term.

From the opposition side, led formula launch Alberto Fernández, on secondment in the vice presidency by 2010 Cristina Kirchner, interpret it as a Offer and open dialogue to other political sectors, which distances itself from the prejudice that falls on the "hard" Kirchner, who left power with her change controls and foreign trade, restrictions on payment of dividends a unpaid external debt.

It was also obvious that the Justicialism will not be easy behind the figure of the President of the Nation twice. Oh Alternative Federal They anticipated that they would go to the primary schools with their own candidate. This was announced by the recent re-election Juan Schiaretti and the former Minister for Economy, t Roberto Lavagna.

As the outlook for the arrival of government radicalization into financial operations is decreasing, they begin set some basic assets themselves and also the macroeconomics of Argentina. This is what is reduce the Country Risk, that is move away from the alarming threshold of 1,000 points at the end of April.

JP Morgan's indicator is retiring on Tuesday 48 whole or 5.1% for Argentina, on 886 base points. This benchmark measures the difference in US Treasury bond return rate 10 years with its peers coming to the obvious.

With a Treasurie today produces 2.43% t, in the case of Argentina, a 10 year debt issue would require Annual position rate of 11.3% in dollars. It is still too onerous to be able to honor it in the current position in terms of public finances. So, Argentina appealed to the Monetary Fund International (IMF), which gave an extraordinary loan to some USD 57,000 million so that the Government can pay capital and interest payments until 2020.

"Y volatility arising from political risk it remains the. t changing with more pressure within the local market. During the weekend, the Cristina's candidacy to the vice-presidency, along with Alberto Fernández as president. There seems to be two objectives to this move: t attracts other Peronists support and persuading the voters not to decide by a more modest offer", he described an analysis of Balanz Capital.

Oh Trader Research he noticed "in the midst of the novelty that CFK will be a former candidate for vice president, Roberto Lavagna announced that he will also be a candidate to a president. Now the market will be available waiting for response Change before the definitions of their opponents ", while this reversal occurs as the bonds deteriorate.

For the time being, those who fought for the Presidency were in favor respect the commitments and maintain the agreement with the IMF, although in some cases tends to renegotiate the existing conditions of the stand by. Whatever, the "default" spirit moves away from next year.

"Y very rare economic cases, and positive political news about the. t the solvency of the bonds Argentina – maintaining fiscal and fiscal policy in the coming years – as well as opposition actions should comply with the t forces that give direction and bias to the Country Hazard " t, they trusted them Personal Portfolio Investments.

Y 54% loss of dollar value since January 2018 in just under 17 months. Values ​​of the sovereign bonds incorporated, for some analysts, a default scenario that today does not seem realistic.

"During the first half of May they started apparent buds – are not green towards a disinfected with 3.4% in April, the fixed exchange rateand the BCRA can go reduce homeopathic rates of LELIQ – is proactive – in combination with an increase in passive rates for savers, "Personal Inversion Portfolio said." On the side of the financial solvency and activity there was a strong increase in the collection in April which led to a basic surplus for the fourth consecutive month, "he added.

So, "these ads led to a Check the best financial humor in the Low Country Risk so far this month and in a smaller negative gap in the likelihood that the Government will be re-elected against its main opponent, "he said of a Personal Portfolio.

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