According to the data published by INDEC, invoicing specialized shopping centers (in nominal terms) cit was 5% from year to year (i.a.) in that period, but the prices of the item, measured by the IPC-GBA Ecolatina, increased by an average of 38% ie, which leaves the bill really clear in a negative territory (-22% i.a.).
Regarding the reasons for the fall, the Ecolatina consultancy emphasizes that the first is that the third quarter of 2018 is not presently presenting the "global impact", a TV sales growth engine in the first part of 2018.
In this line, up to June, there was a 75% increase in bills in the real terms of the television, video and photography item. Although the rest of the items as a whole show an increase of only 6.4% i.a. In the third quarter, the fall was prevalent: the number before before 32% i.a decreased, while the latter dropped by 20% to.a.
The second reason is the new macroeconomic context. The Argentine's most important devaluation and price increase – including the disappearance – from credit caused the demand for domestic equipment to go away.
In this sense, the jump in the dollar price, the lower purchasing power in a currency, encouraging the purchase of durable goods, but also a rapid inflation, while declining the purchasing power in pesos .
In particular, in September, when the dollar of $ 40 and uncertainty in the markets, there was a 1.8% nominal reduction of 1.8% for bills and the sector, with prices in the sector climbing more than 50% i.a.
As well, After the exchange rate jump, home appliances and household items become more expensive compared to other goods in the economy: In September-October, the General Price Level grew by 12.7%, while prices and the item increased by 24%.
Prospects for the sector are not encouraging. We expect the reduction in the sale of household appliances in the final quarter of 2018 and will not show significant improvements during 2019.
Salaries in pesos would only show real-term growth in the middle of next year and the amendment would not be enough to compensate for the losses during 2018. So, given the need to reuse & # 39 ; the use of goods considered to be in need of more than durable goods, purchase of equipment would continue to be eradicated in 2019.
Similarly, Although a significant drop in interest rate is expected, it will continue at high levels, making it difficult to access funding, a key instrument in the sector.
Finally, we do not expect the relative release of home appliances that boost sales, given that we anticipate that the exchange rate will move in line with inflation (the price of the home component of the dollar is associated with the price of the dollar ).
In this way, until the economy shows greater stability, the cost of funding is reduced to accessible levels and pay is strengthened, the sector's sales would not show recovery.