A new predictive model developed by an ecologist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and a climate scientist at the University of Washington suggests that climate change can allow ordinary surgeons to extend its increasing range to the north and to the large metro areas of north- east, aggravating conditions for millions of people with hay and asthma fever.
Kristina Stinson's plant ecologist at UMass Amherst, who leads a research team who has been studying this plant for over a decade – especially how to respond to high CO2 levels – working with the climate engineer and corresponding author Michael Case to PC on this project. Details appear online in the magazine PLOS One.
They indicate that, although the weeds are expected to expand its diversity, this sensitivity of the plant itself could be to climate change. For example, they indicate that they are negatively correlated in their analysis, to a very low or very high annual deposition variation, "which shows general sensitivity to sediment extremes" as well as extremes of temperature, the authors' goal. Stinson adds that this could be an important uncertainty; "If the North East turns more wet and cold, it would be less inviting to a pre-requisite," he said.
"One reason we chose to study a prognosis is because of its human health implications. The main allergen is a beef pale that is punished for the symptoms of grass fever in the summer and fall in North America, so & # 39 ; n affect many people, "ecology notes of the plants.
To better understand how climate change can affect the common model distribution, namely Stinson and Case, a maximum entropy, Maxent, predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and comments across the US east. ; r Denmark-based Global Biodiversity Information Facility, a project that provides hundreds of millions of species event records worldwide, together with plant data from herbalium records such as those that have, u locate in UMass Amherst.
Stinson said, "We have expanded in 700 data points for young people from all over North America and have prepared that information with another climate-based database in each of those locations. Then we used climate change models to project ahead in time what could be expected to happen. "
The authors also point out that, "After building and testing our model, we anticipated that there would be a common distribution in the future, using a series of 13 global climate models under two greenhouse gas scenarios in the future for the middle of the century and the end. As well as providing geo-directed hot areas of potential expansion in the future, we also provide confidence of confidence by evaluating the number of global climate models agree. "
The model suggests that a "significant compression" of common beehives could be part of central Florida, the southern Appalachian Mountains and northeast of Virginia, along with areas of potential expansion on the northern edges of its current distribution, especially in north east of the United States.
Stinson adds, "What I find is quite interesting in such a way that the range of the span will not expand, because that's what someone could expect about a gun species, but I was interested in seeing where it is most likely to spread and where we could see the limitations of a range. It seems likely that there will be a temporary burst following a break in the 2070s. "
The researchers note, "Although other modeling factors and approaches should be explored, we offer a preliminary insight into which a common concern could be a new concern in the future. Due to the health effects of the heart, local weed control boards may be advised to monitor expansion areas and may increase efforts to eliminate. "
Stinson states, "We do not have many such models that tell us where individual species can go under different situations. Ecologists work on doing this type of study for more species, but there are not enough data points at all times throughout the world, individual species data is scarce, but it's quite a lot of proactive, who did this study in practice. "