The initial effect is to extend a steady state that began at the beginning of the second quarter and is expected to be extended, in the interactive comparison to the beginning of 2020, in the case of market consensus, and even the agency's estimates. internationally
The expected rhythm of the basic indicators
For December, the REM shows an expected inflation of 2.7%, one tenth percentage points less than in October, and fall to 2.5% for next January; and 2.3% February and for March
However, in terms of the previous year, the Consumer Price Index increase rate will be held at the peak of more than 48% that would be registered in November until next March, due to inert effects, but it is anticipated that a bearish rally will be predicted in an ongoing way.
Forecasts for 2018 were held in relation to the previous publication: a 2.4% reduction; for 2019, a decline of 1.2%, two tenth point percentage points will be expected to fall less than in October; while for the following year it is accelerated by one tenth, to a 2.5 percent reaction.
One factor determining the expected turning point in the activity rhythm, in line with the expected annulment in the inflation rate will be the expected reduction in interest rate policy policy reference rate derived from daylight of Leliq to 7 days.
Forecasts for December of the monthly monthly average of the financial policy rate had reduced 500 basic points, 65% annually in the previous survey to 60% in the present, as was the cut yesterday; and for the present month, the projections are weakened to 58.9% annually.
Yes A clear sign of confidence in the sustainability of the new financial policy plan of zero expansion of the amount of money and basic deficit, as he returns to throw REM consensus forecasts as a baseline balanced result for 2019.
With similar words, yesterday, Enrique Cristofani, president of the bank of Santander Río, was expressed at the annual entertainment meeting for journalists, among those who took part Infobae: "The Government's decision to bet on a competitive and exchange rate, basic financial balance and zero emissions financial policy will allow economic growth to recover sometime in 2019. "