According to analysts, inflacin start a path with trend is increasing since August and, although it will have valleys, will maintain its rise and reach between 3.3% and 4.1% per month next semester, despite the changes in the dollar. This trend was noted in the Market Expectations Survey (REM), a month-to-month survey of the Central Bank (BCRA).
The average of respondents calculated their predictions of inflacin up, estimating that 2020 will close with inflation between 36.4% and 36.7%. For his part, of the BCRA reportedly means a inflacin overall between 17m4 and 17.1 points lower than 53.8% from 2019.
The problem is that the data represents an estimate that is 1.3 or 0.9 points higher than forecast a month ago. In addition, October is the first time since the start of the pandemic that respondents have failed to reach their calculations, expecting a inflacin overall 3.2% and found 3.8% reported by the Indec.
Alongside this, the prospects for inflacin for 2021 they increased from 48.9% to 50% and adjusted the increase in their estimates.
They estimate the inflacin November was between 3.5% and 3.6% and maintains the 4% calculation for December and 4.1% for January and also notes increases for February and March predictions.
In this way, analysts believe that the inflacin that started in 2020, due to the rate freeze and price agreements, in the final months of the year and will continue into the first four months of 2021, taking into account the official announcements that reported on the the end of the freeze in March.
The economy, by showing recovery, will result in a return of a classified bid, for the strong pay adjustments in recent years. Participants of the REM they calculated a range of 10.9% to 11% each in the economy this year.
However, they estimate that slowdown Reintroducing the activity will only grow by 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and remain prevalent in the first quarter of 2021, where the improvement is less than 1 point.
The activity will allow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 4.8% in 2021 although it will lose strength in 2022, reaching 2.5%.
In terms of dollar, the projection estimates it will close at $ 83 a year and reach $ 126.45 by the end of 2021, showing a nominal depreciation of the peso of 38.6% this year and 52.3% for the next.