A society horizon that, over two thirds, tends to define an election "Against"? The question would reveal three things: an inconsistency of a scene similar to and trap Absence almost exclusively – except in hard legs of Change and Kirchnerism- the fuel that means the political charm. The great enigma that opens to the future, whatever the government has had to anoint, to lead from 2020 countries with her socio-economic procurement and systemic weakness.
Such a challenge is not yet on the agenda of anyone. They all seem absorbed by the tricks of the campaign. The only outline may stand out on federal beaches of Peronism. Roberto Lavagna warned of the difficulties that will come and promote the creation of a broad frontier. Such generosity even stimulates hives in related sectors.
That staggering space has two problems. It fails to discriminate polarization. An experiment conducted by the Isonomía consultancy reveals something else: Lavagna, Sergio Massa and Salta Juan Manuel Urtubey would accumulate about 25% of advertisements. None of the candidates, individually, would be able to keep the volume stated. Evidence arises: something of Massismo would tend to migration towards Kirchnerism; Salta governor's voters could have a fluid towards macrismo checked; Among the enthusiastic of the former Economy Minister, if not a candidate, registration could be registered back to Cambiemos.
The Government seems to be the watchman of those movements. He continues to stick to the person who lives a life that is unsuccessful: the confrontation with Cristina Fernández. One informs the lack of political control and imagination. Mauricio Macri is mainly incorporated with main staff, Marcos Peña, and eciatic adviser Jaime Durán Barba. Maria Eugenia Vidal and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta's insignia to zamarrear that plan are not enough.
The President faces three decisions before it does not show a reply. The economy is still poor and the recession is banners. That reality stimulates Internal change. Especially with radical partners. There is currently evidence that the disclosures are about Kirchner's corruption has ceased to have the political revenue they know. Little because the Government leaves the issue to Justice bent by twigs and is exacerbated by the broadleaved attempts of the bushes. Another merit corresponds to the Kirchnerism: it is incredible to set the idea that corruption would be badly encoding the whole equally. No answer Hazardous compliance whose following society has already suffered.
Mauricio Macri with the head of the IMF in Casa Rosada.
Losing the relevance of pollution as an axis of popular concerns is evident in the work of the consultants. Isonomía and Aresco reflect the same site: the first is fear of inflation, then & the increase in rates and uncertainties. In the fourth place burst a panic about the possibility of losing jobs. Only then corruption appears. This situation may ignore a scary machine for election opportunities Change: Peronist support, without a difference of sectors, which is fed into the virtualization of the return. The economic downturn for them undermines the ethical-organizational demand. It has been a period since I talked about the crime finds of the decade K. We will have to see What happens when Cristina faces her first oral and public strike in May with the suspicion of money laundering when exercising power as a focus of gravity.
The economy continues to be the backbone of the scenario. And then the different problems fall. One of these is the Change tension. He asked the radicals to review the increase in rates and asset rates and rates for SMEs. The opposition says the same. The partners were, however, beneficial when they believed that the expectations generated by Change in 2015 "have not been fully satisfied". The opponents attacked the choir that "Macri has already failed."
The dislocation should not be surprised in the official coalition. They may be staggering more than at other times because the final of a massive electoral year begins to be transferred. But there is a history of decisions made by the Presiding Officer during these years (most of them were associated with the adjustment) that he had never considered his fellow travelers. Radicalism can now be released on its lack of opportunity. But the macrismo is carrying a chnawsack not to be aware of interpreting a co-armed sense to govern. That machines work effectively in campaign times and voting. Also a virtue of such under observation.
A scandal, for example, includes the definition of candidacy in Córdoba. The province where, after Capital, Macri's figure is better measurable. The votes in the Mediterranean were determined for the previous victories. Candidate of Casa Rosada is the deputy Mario Negri. Inter-combating head and transgender in Congress. Her side is the macrista Héctor Baldassi. He also faces the challenge of the capital's capital, Ramón Mestre. The unit's efforts were made late and poor. Yfory the key to answer will be searching urgently.
In the government they suspect that that party's competition could count on the fire fire of Juan Carlos Schiaretti. The governor would have predicted the elections for two reasons. In order to eliminate predictable national polarization. He would continue to win a victory, as the most powerful and representative leader of the PJ if he managed to build a building outside Cristina.
Another change in Cambiemos partners is today's election in Neuquén. Omar Gutiérrez, from the Popular Neuquén Foundation (MPN), is trying to re-election. Ramón Rioseco, blessed by Cristina, stands out as a threat. Cambula, also competitive, is the radical Horacio "Pechi" Quiroga, mayor of the capital. The allegations in the coalition crossed raining. Quiroga made his campaign take a distance from Macri. Or ignore it. Only a national minister, Patricia Bullrich, who passed through the Neuquén soil. The radicals ensure that such macrista ban imposes the good harmony between President and Gutiérrez. The president was a bridge to the agreement that the Government had with the senator and proprietor of Neuquén oil union, Guillermo Pereyra. The possibility of starting & exploiting the Vaca Muerta deposit was made. Essential to energy policy and future goal of producing dollars. Its shortage causes regular emergencies in Argentina.
This one of the discomfort does not hide the greatest concern. That is not the heritage of radicalism. The Government continues with the economy turning into a final. From that fan, it does not receive support from the IMF. There is a unique look at the dollar that returns to the buck. It is a threat with corridas. I'll cut short with gross interest rates that keep productivity in intensive care. The dollar is driven by internal uncertainty and international volatility. All of the American money it can affect inflation that will never slow down. I have been told and known: the price rise is the main reason for the broad moodiness in society.
Without brake, Changing electoral possibilities is complex. Vidal confirms this in her trips through the suburbs. The governor she has a weight in Buenos Aires 10 points above President. Higher than Cristina's. If that gap is not shortened in the coming months, it will be very difficult for the president to keep the main electoral area. If that does not happen, shadows will fall on the presidential election. Macri is walking at the end.
That painting represents the greatest strength of Cristina. It could draw the popular attention to the mud of pollution that will be forced to get started soon by facing oral trials. No shelters or sediments. Of course, Kirchnerism or Peronism is not willing to settle such a fate, depending on the other unfortunately.
Claudio Bonadío, who confirms the case of "allotment notebooks," is accused by a former president of her prosecution. Kirchnerism warns a politician basement to stamp a folder. Get out of the game. Carlos Stornelli's prosecutor's dissatisfaction prevented movement against him. With the complexity of Justice and Pejotism sectors. There is now an awful task to try to confuse the other prosecutor Carlos Rivolo. The same thing that was separated in 2012 when the Ciccone case broke out and hit Amado Boudou.
Other precedents would support the assumption that Kirchnerists and Peronists would definitely work together. O gosb. Last year, the K, the PJ and the masters were plotted to dispose of the majority of deputies' representatives in the Literacy Council to Cambiemos. The body that appoints and rejects judges. Also between the K and the PJ disinfected in the Congress, the Government's Promotion of Exemption Law of Judge. The mechanism that allows the recovery of millions and bad patrimonies to State. Now they deal with MacN's DNU. But there is an open path: it would end with an electoral victory.