Thursday , August 18 2022

How many dollars are available with the BCRA and the Treasury to regulate the exchange market t


Since the launch of the new float regime with the intervention of the Central Bank unrestricted within what was a band of apartments and ceilings of $ 39,755 for purchase and $ 51,448 for the sale of dollars, since last April 29, the financial authority the price of the money was almost stabilized at $ 45.55 for purchases by retail entities of the entities and $ 44.50 for the wholesale segment, where the companies associated with foreign trade operate the some who have to face financial commitments in foreign currency with the rest of the world.

It does not require nearly sales reserves for the first time: only a fall of USD 221 million in four days for a 240 million USD auction of the Treasury to deal with public debt maturity payments in pesos; the Leliq rates also did not increase much, going from 73.19% to 73.77% per annum to 7 days.

At the same time, the process of abolishing exports by the agricultural sector continued, which now benefits from record harvesting after two terrible years due to the first effects of the flooding, and after the worst drought for over 50 years. So, the gross cash position remained above USD 71.290 million, though only 20% would be available free of charge.

The numbers that gave assurances to the market, beyond the electoral uncertainty and the movements announced in the US Federal Reserve reference rate, were that the BCRA's net internal funds were t – rising from the removal of the obligations, that is, those dollars that are not owned by themselves but come from debt or other sources, such as currency swaps with China and international banks t , as well as residues of IMF expenses that are not used – they are easy enough to cover the biodegradable margin deposits Fixed term transactions, which the financial authority estimated that they were about USD 9,000 million.

The BCRA's partial data from April 29 was on the total number of private deposits in fixed rate pesos peso, together with those that can be adjusted by UVA and additional income, accounting for a total of just over $ 1,14 billion, t The equivalent of USD 25,130 million at the average selling rate to the public at the end of last week, at $ 45.55 per dollar.

Although there is virtually none in the market, particularly among the economists' consensus, they are considering returning to the dollar's pesos conversion regime, t our exercise helps us to explain where you stand to face troubled situations and possible flight of Argentina risk tToday, the focus is on some international investment funds that were attracted by really high interest rates, more in pesos than in dollars, but now the fear of changing a political scenario overcomes their greed.

The level of International Reserves is a simple exercise to determine the Central Bank's actual fire capacity to face excessive demand of dollars in the long term: these are the result of withdrawal from the gross level of Friday, May 3. , the money is not used from 4 IMF expenses, (some 13,700 million USD); currency swaps with China (USD 18,000 million); and exchanges with Bank International Settlements and Foreign Banks for USD 8,000 million; bank reserves in currency that rise from the difference between the record of private deposits in foreign currency which amounted to USD 30,107 million, and loans are the same nomination for USD 15,909 million.

Of that rose RIN USD a little USD 17,390 million, equivalent to 69% of total private deposits in fixed term pesos.

Adding 9.6 billion USD that the Treasury can sell at auction until the end of the year, the total interference capacity in the foreign exchange market rose to USD 27,000 million, and is much higher than the total amount of private deposits in the currency. local interest is set at pre-fixed interest, or a total exchange of $ 42.40, which is lower from 7% on the weekly sales closing to the public.

To the above some USD 4,000 million are the market surplus surplus estimates of the trade balance are added to them between April and next December.

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