Thursday , August 11 2022

Comment: consultants predict that February will close with an increase of 3.5%


O Ecolatina, Orlando J. Ferreres, CESO and ABECEB gave their prospects to this medium. It would mainly be driven by tariffs and beef

With the surprising number of inflation released by the INDEC for January, which rose by 2.9%, the forecast for February suggests a hot month. In a dialogue with, consultants said that the closure closure of around 3.5% could be pushed by tariffs, the increase in meat and inert inflation. If the figure is confirmed, the Consumer Price Index will set up only 6% in the first two months.

2018 closed for a Government deficit on inflation. The organization led by Jorge Todesca reported a staggering increase of 47.6% in 12 months, which gave him a maximum of the last 27 years. There has been a decline in falling rates and nesting rates for goods and services and although the first appears stabilized, the last one continues to take its toll, at least in the short term.

Advisers gave their prospects to for the second month of the year and agreed that it will not be silent February but, vice versa, it will close with "hot" inflation. In some cases, they put it at around 2.6% while others put around 3.5%.

Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, chief economist of Ecolatina, said "February 1st, compared to the first January, gave us 3.4% and we anticipate the month closing around 3.5%."

"We found an unpleasant surprise in the price of beef, it was pretty quiet, but it started to rise in the wholesale market in January and in February it gives us a strong increase of about 10%. That & # 39; Having an effect on Food and Drinks, which would close at least 3.5% which means that inflation in the second month will continue to accelerate, "he said.

In order to explain the progress, he emphasized that "cattle prices were behind dollar". This update was partially seen in January, but Sigaut Gravina said "in February there will be a 10% increase in beef, which explains why we are not talking about 3% but 3.5% .This can reach March and also hit the value of the chicken. We talk about a very sensitive face in the face of equality and people will feel it. "

Regarding the January figure published by INDEC, Sigaut Gravina said he was "surprised because he gave us a figure similar to the December figure, and February saw it a little higher than them."

Regarding the persistence of inflation in a consistent context, Sigaut Gravina argued that it was a part of "breathing" but also because we had high and constant inflation more than 10 years ago, and in 2018 he accelerated many, with some prices that were not yet have to update. To that, we have to add the rates. "

A study carried out by the University of Research Research in Torcuato Di Tella indicates that the expected inflation of society for 2019 remains around 30%. For Sigaut Gravina, the annual inflation "will touch 35% and with start-up data confirming this perception".

Faustus Spotorno, economist and director of the Center for Economic Studies, Orlando J. Ferreres, before the consultation on the current inflation expectations for the current month and said they predicted "close to 3%, with a very large impact of tariffs". In that sense, he said "the key issue is to see if Food is loosens, which we believe it is doing. But if not, we would be higher than that number."

In terms of the impact of the tariffs on the CPI, the economist of OJF said "in the short term it only affects in the medium term that is not. This month the increase will be for that reason, but the following will be the rates has a devastating effect on the rest of the goods because when it has to pay rates, you can not buy other products, "added Spotorno.

A report published by the Scalabrini Ortiz Economic and Social Studies Center notes that the supermarket price index, which corresponds to a sequence of more than 20,000 products, is 0.38% only during the second week of February. Also, compared to the same week in January, the figure rose to 2.58%. On the other hand, the ABECEB adviser said the prospects will be 3%.

Crescent director Andrés Asiain said "the estimate for February is 2.6%", which would give it only 0.3 percentage points by January.

In order to explain the reason for the rise in prices despite the economic recession, Asiain said "financial inflation is not a demand for it." "There was a cost shock of the price reduction that is still being transferred to prices. There were also salary claims that, together with a new increase at the end of the year, added to the increase in rates and high interest rates that increase financial costs. All of this is about inert inflation already in the rental contracts, in the credits, in the equality expectations, is the scenario that is # 39 ; n production and current inflation, "it came to the conclusion.

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