Thursday , May 26 2022

AMLO and the external environment make Morgan Stanley break forecasts for Mexico


DINAS OF MEXICO- The Mexican economy will grow faster than was expected previously due to the political uncertainty generated by the forthcoming government change and the progress to the power of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, analysts said in the US investment bank, Morgan Stanley.

The financial institution is forecasting the performance of the Mexican economy of next year, from 2.3 to 1.7%, due to the most adverse environment the country will face, both externally and internally.

The suspicions "regarding the direction of the policy are at the time of the reorganization of external demand and tougher financial conditions, which imply adverse risks in the forecasting horizon," says economists Morgan Stanley in an economic prospectus on for Latin America in 2019.

The forecast of economists of that bank is below what is estimated by the consensus of analysts, which according to the latest monthly survey of Mexico Bank is 2.2%.

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"Firstly, government transfer is likely to delay the implementation of the budget, as was the case in 2013. At that time, public spending and investment became a major barrier to the economy, especially in the first half of the year, "added economists Morgan Stanley.

"Secondly, the uncertainties generated by recent policy errors will be likely to limit any significant investment in investment that derives from optimism about the T-MEC (Mexico, US and Canada Agreement) and the export cycle of the T & Still be favorable ".

Therefore, the expected growth of the Mexican economy is in contrast to the forecasts that this bank has for the region, where they expect the dynamics to grow 1.6% in the Latin American GDP this year onwards hand 1.9% in the next.

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