Tuesday , October 4 2022

2019 will be closer to that complicated for the dollar


But beyond how many weeks or months this might continue, what it is clear is that the current financial market gap can not exist forever. In other words, a dollar dollar and a country is a risk of more than 300/350 points – the highest level that can be put into debt in international markets – is a completely incompatible fact. That is, to think that time can continue to pass this way, with the dyler returning to be a variety of discreet behavior while it is impossible not to install a new debt, but debt renewal is not possible Only are irresponsible factors only, but rather extreme extreme factors: antagonist to each other The country's risk is closed yesterday at a level of 724 points. So, there is a sea of ​​difference between the current level and the level that debt can be renewed for more than six months. This factor, which shows any significant signs of improvement, but vice versa, faster rather than later, will uninstall the currency market. It can not be thought that the months will continue as did November, with newspapers in the newspapers far from the risk-related financial variables in the country at similar levels.

What can happen then? What happens if the current dynamics of these two variables remain unchanged: the dollar and the risk of the country? Most likely, as the first months of 2019 pass, and the dollar of the Monetary Fund are used to pay, not only will the risk rate in the country be a great resistance to achieving levels of # 39 ; n are compatible with the possibility of going to credit Markets, but their high level will begin to generate instability in the exchange market. And the dollar instability translates rapidly on the one hand to the inability to significantly reduce interest rates, even if Central Bank has removed & # 39; the "floor" back, and on the other hand on the impossible to reduce the very inflation rate in a very strong way. It could well be said that the inflation rates could be between 2% and 3% per month only with much luck for many months, which have now been visual for December. It is worth saying that we are now going to a period of silence that would only be inconsistent and short.

And this is very reasonable if one takes into account that the government would be abolished – if the tax collection does not play too much – the lack of Treasury action in 2019, but he would still suffer from a flawed semi-fashionable deficiency of the BCRA, and, adding to the increasing Treasury deficit, instead of collapse, would come together at 7.5% of CMC. With the lack of lack and without voluntary funding in the markets, they are very unlikely that they will be able to converge at very low interest rates and a fixed and stable dollar. Even less if one takes into account, in the 2019 election, the markets will reduce dollars and the body that will lead Chritine Lagarde to be used.

It's likely that the outside will not give any break to the Argentine economy either. It seems that we do not realize that international markets have experienced the longest and longest quartet market in history: almost a decade of raising Wal Street and raising almost zero interest rates. That scenario starts to disappear in 2018, when the products and components on Wall Street began to rise and show clear signs of having reached a ceiling. The country's risk rates, not only in Argentina, but also from many other countries may record in their contributions this factor that is still far from being fully reduced . It is likely that many countries will have no access to international credit markets during 2019. And given Argentina to be most dangerous at all, according to current quotations, we will then go to 2019 which will receive seconds from great uncertainty and increasing risk. Now, it seems that this has not been adequately internalized by the authorities that publish more and more financial rules, giving rise to floors, ceilings, sufficiency rules, goals and objectives that can occur suddenly I'll be with each other as soon as one of the factors that we have made comments put pressure on the dollar market. It seems that if you think the process of reducing interest rates has come to wait and the possibility of saving the dollar can check something that has already "bought", such as foxes , and not a lion who is currently thinking of rolling and snack on the tamer.

This range of measures that make the money market more complex is planned for another time and other circumstances. You could say almost for another country. Even Argentina, from 2020, does not even believe that it leaves aggressively with the markets to buy a dollar in the financial market to pay and not to fail in an increasingly complex world. In the opposite hand, financial rules that are worthy of obsessive neurotic, which are in a compulsory way, create a rule after rule while the market gives a little advantage of a few weeks.

Meanwhile, we are in December: the month that is usually the most unusual of the year, the month with the most financial needs in circulating and current accounts of a gap in pesos from companies. It may not be noticed, but sources of return to instability return to gesture, for now in a labyrinthine way. When it becomes visible in all its power, it will be clear that Argentina can not afford to have a combined deficit of 7.5% of GDP in a world that not only funds it, but also stops being a source wide financial bonanza.

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