Food demand is growing as people get bigger. Feeding a population of 9 billion in 2050 will require much more food than previously calculated.
"It will be harder to feed 9 billion people in 2050 than it would be today," said Gibran Vita, Ph.D. a candidate at the University of Science and Technology University of Industrial Ecology.
According to WWF, the world's biggest environmental problem is destroying wildlife and plant habitat. Much of the destruction is the result of growing human population requirements. On the other hand, Zero Hunger is the second U.N Sustainable Development Goal, and its challenge is to meet global growing food demand.
The world's population could graduate around 9 billion in a few years, compared to just over 7.6 billion now.
But an ordinary person in the future will require more food than today. Changes in eating habits, attitudes towards food waste, increased body height and mass, and demographic transfer are some of the reasons.
Professor Daniel B. Müller and colleagues Felipe Vásquez and Vita analyzed changes in the populations of 186 countries between 1975 and 2014. "We studied the effects of two phenomena. One is that people on average have become heavier and heavier. second is that the average population is older, "says Vita.
The first phenomenon contributes to increasing demand for food. The second opposes the first one.
An average adult in 2014 was 14 per cent more heavier, about 1.3 percent higher, 6.2 per cent older, and 6.1 per cent needed more energy than in 1975. Researchers are expecting the tendency This will continue to most countries.
"An average adult adult used 2465 kilocalor a day in 1975. In 2014, the average adult used 2615 kilocalor," said Vita.
Globally, people drinking increased by 129 per cent during this period. Population growth was responsible for 116 per cent, and the weight and increasing height accounted for 15 per cent. Older people need a little less food, but an aging population results in only two percent less eating.
"The additional 13 percent equals the needs of 286 million people," said Vásquez.
This in turn corresponds to the needs of Indonesia and Scandinavian food needs.
There are significant variations between countries. The increase in weight per person between 1975 and 2014 ranged from 6 to 33 per cent, with the increasing energy requirement ranging from 0.9 to 16 per cent.
An ordinary person of Tonga weighs 93 kilometers. The average Vietnamese weighs 52 cents. This means that the Tonga people need 800 more gilocalories every day – or about four bowls of oats.
Some countries change rapidly. On Saint Lucia in the Caribbean, the average weight of 62 cilos rose in 1975 to 82 kilos 40 years later.
The lowest and highest changes are seen in Asia and Africa, reflecting the inconsistencies between the countries of these continents.
Not calculated from & previous
"Previous studies have not considered the growing demands of individuals and larger age societies when calculating the needs of a growing population in the future," said Vásquez.
Most studies estimate that adult food needs on average continue constant over time and fairly similar across nations. But that's not how it's.
"These assumptions can lead to mistakes when assessing what food we really need to meet future demand," said Vásquez.
This study provides relevant information to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), who is the leader in the fight to ensure food safety for all.
Vásquez a Vita says we have to look at more than just the number of people in an area to understand the mechanisms behind us. This requires a multidisciplinary approach that considers social and physiological factors.
The analysis of this study included bio-demography, hybrid of biology and demography. Researchers adapted a model for dynamic systems that are often used in industrial ecology to study stocks and resource flows.
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Felipe Vásquez et al, Food Safety for the Aging and Tensach Population, Sustainability (2018). DOI: 10.3390 / su10103683