As South Africa's ruling parties fight to leave behind the succession of scandals and extend its quarter-centered monopoly on power in next year's elections, it has a key advantage: injured opposition.
By enforcing the unpopular Jacob Zuma to stand down as president in February, the ANC defended the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters from their largest electoral asset. The DA has also been corrected by attacking his Cape Town stronghold, while the EFF faces allegations that he receives illegally diverted money from a failed bank.
That gives a boost to the confrontation that President Cyril Ramaphosa, 66, can win a strong enough mandate in May to strengthen his grip on the party and follow on on promises to tie down on drafting and regenerating & # 39; r economy.
"In the current political context, many investors are likely to consider a strong mandate for the ANC – in the range of 55 to 60% – the best possible outcome," said Anne Fruhauf, vice president a Teneo risk consultant in New York. "The assumption is that this will help President Ramaphosa strengthen his mandate and have a policy test within the ANC and include the influence of the EFF."
Votes commissioned by Ipsos, the Institute of Race Relations and the ANC itself, all show that the party is still getting hold of the parliament, although down on the 62% that won in 2016.
Only two years ago, the ANC was at risk of losing the majority it has held since the first multi-regional elections in 1994 when its support was reached to a low record of 54% in the 2016 civic vote – Conflict against endemic corruption during Zuma's almost nine year rule.
The DA ensured the control of a number of large cities, while the EFF's popular policies support its support among young voters, urban abolished with constant poverty and unemployment rate now 27.5%, one in the world's highest.
The ANC began to collapse after Ramaphosa, former trade union leader who helped negotiate the end of apartheid and lead on drafting the country's first democratic constitution, stretching out Zuma's former wife and elective successor, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, to win the party's control in December.
Since presuming the nation's presidency, Ramaphosa has fired a number of state-of-the-art ministry and senior management of graft-related companies and is leading the $ 100 billion campaign in new investment.
But the 106-year-old ANC is not completely out of the forest. His leadership battle causes deep and persistent divisions in his series and Zuma allies continue to occupy key positions in the cabinet and the party, including General Secretary Ace Magashule, restricting the Ramaphosa room to move and restore public trust.
"Mkhabela Mpumelelo, a political analyst at the University of South Africa in Pretoria, says the people in the ANC are not taking advantage of pollution that is lightweight, which has been the result of pollution. "They would want to fight back."
The statements that Ramaphosa's campaign for the leadership of ANC received a donation from a company with connections to her son and who gave him inaccurate information to the parliament also threatened to undermine her anti-craft driving and to alienate voters.
Although the president says that his mistake was unintentional and that the money would be returned, he called the opposition for a judicial investigator.
At the same time, the DA was praised by one of the national leaders and former Mayor of Cape Town Patricia de Lille. He was forced to resign after she was accused of interrupting at a management appointment and was blamed for the city to have a qualified audit report because two tenders were found to have been awarded irregularly.
De Lille, who denies any wrongdoings, is now planning to start a new political party. That could cost the support of DA in Western Cape, the only of the nine provinces that it is managing, as De Lille continues to be popular there, especially among mixed race residents.
The EFF has been restricted by reports that he and some of the leading leaders have received millions of tricks sent from the failed VBS Bankruptcy. Although the party says that it has not revealed any evidence of wrongdoing by its officers, law enforcement and parliamentary agencies investigate the allegations.
"It appears that all of the main parties are in a state of flu, they suffer from inner regions and some harm to reputation," said Daryl Glaser, a professor of politics at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. "There are no perfect choices. For those who like Ramaphosa, I believe they will wait and see and give him another opportunity."
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